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Crude Observations

Jul
28

A Canadian Welcome Mat

The doomers and gloomers were hard at work this week after yet another international oil company announced plans to stop investing in the Canadian energy sector. It’s getting so a Canucklehead can’t shoot a puck without hitting some Euro/Asian/American energy company in the butt as they skeedaddle out of the country.


Jul
22

On the Road…

Shorter missive this week as I am on the road, exploring Canada from the comfort of my gas-guzzling SUV’s Captain Kirk commander seat – keeping the revs high, passing indiscriminately and wearing those tires down as quickly as humanly possible. No one can ever accuse me of not “walking the talk” when it comes to wanton consumption of oil and oil based products. We even ate KFC – it doesn’t get any greasier than that.


Jul
14

A Stampedean Metaphor

One of the best and most annoying things about living and working in Calgary is navigating the annual all-consuming celebration of fun and cowboy hats that is the Calgary Stampede. Whether it’s surviving deep-fried French fries coated in Oreo batter, boiled corn rolled in ground-up spicy Cheetos, mainlining mini-donuts or running the gauntlet of corporate gatherings, Stampede is a unique event in our city.


Jul
07

No One Fails in June Right?

Arg. Another half year in the books in this wild and woolly industry we all love so much. What with the past two weeks celebrating birthdays of people and countries, a guy could be forgiven for not taking stock of where his accumulated wisdom sits. Unfortunately, the day of reckoning is at hand.


Jul
01

Nope, not 150 facts about Canada

While last week was significant in that I was able to celebrate a major milestone birthday (cue eye roll in 3, 2, 1 …), this week of course presents a much more unique opportunity. I am referring of course to Canada’s sesquicentennial, or 150th birthday. And who am I to resist the rather obvious temptation of waxing poetic about one of my favourite subjects, the true north strong and free.


Jun
23

52 Things to Think

Well, this is exciting. This week, yours truly’s book of life finally turned from page 51 to 52. I am now one year old for each week in a year and I have managed to get my weight to less than 4 times my age. Not through any genius of diet mind you, just by lazily aging.


Jun
16

Alright, now what?

It’s all well and good to admit defeat on my oil price prediction for 2017 as I did last week. But to then avoid any substantive discussion about the implications of that conclusion is actually a bit of a disservice to readers. So I will try in here to correct that.


Jun
09

They’ll either go this way, or that way.

I don’t know about the rest of you guys, but is anyone else feeling a bit hinky about the price of oil? Every time we seem to have the table set for a rally, someone comes along and saws off a leg. So many indicators going in opposite directions at the same time. It’s… unsettling.


Jun
02

This Agreement is Covfefe…

  Alright, admit it. You are for sure thinking that you are about to be subjected to some boring, windy diatribe about Donald Trump pulling out of the Paris Accord, full of fury about short-sightedness, the upcoming environmental apocalypse and the degradation of America’s standing in the world. Well, you would be wrong! Ha!


May
26

So? What does it all mean?

Well, if it’s the end of May, it must be time for another OPEC meeting. And sure enough it was. Yet again the representatives of the OPEC nations got together in beautiful Vienna (I hear it’s tremendous in the spring) to decide the future of the oil industry and set the course for everyone’s favourite and most hated commodity for the next few hours, days, weeks and months. Joining the OPEC flashmob this time were members of the non-OPEC nations who were participating in the first round of production rollbacks agreed to last November.


May
19

Is Capital Finally Back for Service Companies?

  Read some promising news for service companies recently, particularly those south of the border as it appears that there has been a pretty robust recovery in the capital markets for oilfield service. While too early to declare a solid trend, it’s a long weekend and my glass is half full, so I say it’s positive!


May
12

The BC vote is in. It’s not anarchy. Yet!

So what happens is you throw an election party, everyone votes and you still can’t tell who won? I’ll tell you what – migraines for the energy sector, courtesy of Canada’s leftmost, oddball province.


May
05

Will They or Won’t They?

Wow – that was quite a week in the oil market, with prices collapsing drastically at the end of the week amid much market concern about OPEC cuts and US shale.


Apr
28

Canada in the Crosshairs

If it seems for the past few weeks that you can’t open a newspaper or google a hockey score without someone seeming to take a drive by shot at Canada, well you’d be correct. 


Apr
21

Let’s Make a Deal!

Q1 2017 saw a record US$73 billion of energy M&A, mostly upstream producer related and hot on the heels of a robust $29.6 billion of oil field services deals in the fourth quarter of 2016, the highest amount since 2014. I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that that’s a lot of deals.


Apr
14

Good… Friday and Happy Easter

Short stuff this week as I know most people are off for the Easter weekend and don’t want to be bothered with having to think about the industry much. So I will therefore try to keep it simple and, possibly, use pictures. Like the cute rabbit you already see.


Apr
07

Mid Term Report. Yuck.

So there I was the other day thinking about all the forecasts that I read and how dumb some of them seem to be. I mean seriously, how detached from reality do some people have to be to make the picks and forecasts they do.


Apr
01

Is it a joke?

I know I write a lot about the Permian Basin and all the hype associated with it. I know that I can come across as somewhat skeptical about the hype machine. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t opportunity.


Mar
24

Quack. Quack.

Ah spring, is there anything more refreshing than spring in the air? Allergies, buds pushing up from the ground, leaves getting ready to burst forth, the migration of ducks… Or should I say DUCs? You remember those, Drilled but UnCompleted? Those thousands of drilled wells in the US that were ready to flood the market, what happened to those anyway?


Mar
17

The Energy Sweet Sixteen – Yes!!!

I am channeling my inner Verne Lundquist here as I prepare to submit my bracket for the second annual energy sector sweet sixteen, prepared in metaphorical fashion as we seek to make sense of all the nuances of the market and try to pick a winner.


Mar
10

Meanwhile in Canada…

Last week I went off a bit on the burgeoning over-investment in the Permian Basin in Texas and shared some observations about the state of the financial markets and hype associated with that particular play.


Mar
03

It’s Madness I Tell Ya!

If last week was a Twitter storm, then this week must obviously address the likes, retweets and replies (both positive and negative). And yes, I do receive replies and comments on occasion.


Feb
24

Wait, is it a Twitter Storm or Blizzard?

In true Trumpian social media fashion, I have recently come to the conclusion that any and all things can be described and explained in a well scripted twitter storm – not to exceed 50 tweets in a thread.


Feb
17

Joe who?

Super short this week, as I am sitting in a pub writing this as part of my apres-ski on a quick family trip to the mountains and I don’t want to drip beer on my keyboard.


Feb
10

Pragmatic Environmentalist – umm, what?

So it turns out that that feeling of ears-burning during Super Bowl wasn’t because I failed to predict the completely preposterous, epic comeback win by the Patriots, although that was kind of embarrassing and I lost a lunch bet on it.


Feb
03

Wait, was it 6 or 8 weeks until breakup?

So, it’s Groundhog Day and I wasted all my intellectual ammo last year doing a whole metaphorical dissertation about one of my favourite movies – Groundhog Day (work with me here) with the oil-patch as Phil Connors.


Jan
27

Put That in Your Pipe and Smoke It!

As many of you may have noticed, I’ve closed a lot of my blogs since the election with the line “where’s my damn pipeline” and guess what, as of this week, we are a whole bunch of steps closer to having our damn pipeline. Or as some commentators have said, in 4 days Donald Trump has done more for Canada’s oilpatch than Trudeau or Notley has done in 2 years.


Jan
20

Inaugurate this!

Well, there you go. It’s done. I have to say, the inauguration has always struck me as one of the more uneventful events in the political theatre, everyone is on their best behaviour, it’s civilized and quite often it’s cold and rainy so it seems like everyone just wants to get on with it and go to a party.


Jan
13

Don’t Aim, Shoot! – The Fearless Forecast

As promised, this week’s edition is all about forecasts. It’s about good forecasts, bad forecasts, stretch forecasts, random thoughts and vague justifications. But mostly, it’s about the Fearless Forecast, 2017 edition.


Jan
06

Cloudy with a Chance of Report Cards

Well that was sure a nice break, anyone miss me? But now it’s time to get back to the grindstone and get everything ready for the gong show that 2017 is already shaping up to be what with the coronation, oops “inauguration” of President Donald Trump (still can’t say that without giggling), a brand new carbon tax in Alberta and Vladimir Putin as master puppeteer for the globe!


Dec
23

Mailing it in for Christmas

I’ve always found at Christmas time, that I tend to be really unfocused and end up overlooking some critical things, like work, stocking stuffers for my wife – you know, minor stuff! Case in point, last week was (in my mind at least) my end of year post except I forgot to actually say it was, and today being Friday, I find myself in a bit of a bind.


Dec
16

Letters to the Big Guy

So just the other day, I happened to be walking by one of those postal pick-up thingys – whatever they are called, you know, where Canada Post dumps and sorts your mail and you have to throw on your bathrobe and slippers in the dead of night and drive out to and pick up the mail? The ones they suddenly want to get rid of and go back to home delivery along with, apparently, buying myspace and AOL?


Dec
09

It’s Cold and It’s Making Me Cranky!

So here I sit, housebound by the excruciating cold snap we are going through as well as by (currently shirked) parental responsibilities towards a sick kid. At any rate, other things I should be working on than this blog right? So I will keep it short, like my trips outside. -25? Seriously?


Dec
02

Pipeline Happy Days and OPEC Avoids Jumping the Shark

I hope everyone is super-pumped by that awesome week of energy industry feel-goodness. What with OPEC and pipelines, you can almost be forgiven for not noticing our spiffy new website and masthead for the blog! We are pretty excited about it.


Nov
25

Is OPEC All Thumbs?

OPEC?!?!?!?! What? These guys again? Seriously? It’s hard to believe that we are here yet again. I mean wasn’t it just like last month that we went through the wringer? But that was just the opening act.


Nov
18

I Can Answer That Question!

So here we sit a week or so removed from the US election and you know what? I feel kind of liberated. Not a voting-result based monkey off my back, just relief that I don’t have to spend as much time getting distracted by another country’s crazy politics, at least until January, when the transition happens, or if I suddenly develop an interest in Italian politics (ay, caramba!). Besides, as a private equity buddy reminded me the other day, the blog was maybe getting a little too political in nature, so herewith, back to business! […]


Nov
11

Back to Business, I Guess?

So now that that whole Drumpf election is behind us, I guess it is time to pick up the pieces of our shattered psyches, pick our collective jaws out of the dirt and figure out exactly what is going on, what may happen, what will happen and how much we should be worried about.   As it regards social commentary and the fitness or unfitness of a candidate for a position, their moral compass and whether their supporters are cut from the same cloth or not, much ink has been spilled by far smarter and […]


Nov
09

Didn’t see that coming, did we…

Well, what a night!   It was fascinating watching the results trickle in and seeing Wolf Blitzer get way too excited about a 10 vote swing in Fiddle-Faddle County North Carolina and CNN with their magic wall and talking heads and pundits and smug Canadians like me and people around the world telling everyone in the United States how to vote.   And that is exactly what they did. In big numbers. In surprising numbers. In surprising ways. Some people got the result they wanted. Some people got the result they never wanted. But you […]


Nov
04

Okay Folks, this is it…

**Caution – Provocative and long-winded opinion to follow. May contain nuts**   So, this is what we have been building up to for what seems like the past 2884 months. (Months since July 4 1776).   I am of course referring to the NDP carbon tax economic impact analysis. No wait, the ATB economic update for the province of Alberta. No, the federal government and its fall economic update. Seriously folks, it’s the joint PSAC/CAPP drilling forecast for 2017. Bank of Canada rate decision? FOMC meeting? Cubs win?   Okay, okay, okay. We are talking […]


Oct
28

Trick or Treat

Ah Halloween, that favourite time of year where kids run around in costume yelling at their neighbours, demanding candy, counting their loot, hoarding their bounty and ultimately falling twitching into bed in a massive overly stimulated sugar high as their teeth disintegrate in their sleep.   It’s also the vastly amusing time of year when it is not unusual to pull up at a stop light and have Batman sitting in the car next to you doing something completely mundane like texting or eating a cheeseburger.   By the way, I have my costume picked, […]


Oct
21

It’s Debatable (WRONG!)

So, phew, that was a bit of an experience right? (IT WAS WONDERFUL) Is anyone out there like me after last Wednesday’s debate thanking their lucky stars that this is all finally, mercifully over? (I DON”T ACCEPT THAT RESULT, IT’S NOT OVER TILL I SAY IT IS)   What? It’s not? There’s more? Surely not that much more left. What? 17 days? That’s a freaking eternity! (LOSER)   Look, I actually know how many days there are until November 28th, I mean 8th. (IT’S JUST NUMBERS) I am just at a loss as to what […]


Oct
14

Report Card time? Oh no!!!!!

Well look at that, another three months gone by and it is time to do a Q3 report card on my bold predictions. I would note that so far, there is no Trumpian risk factor showing up, but I expect that volatility may increase as we approach November 8th and by that I mean volatility of the market variety as well as the political.   At any rate, still happy with my forecast as far as it stands. Not like I was really out there on some of it – I am always in favour […]


Oct
07

A Canadian Turkey

Ah, Canadian thanksgiving, turkey, mashed potatoes etc.   Falling leaves and sunny afternoons watching football…   A wonderful time of year and a great opportunity to take stock and give thanks for all the things that matter in the year that is past and the year that is to come.   So, in no particular order, here are some of the things that I am thankful for.   Not being in Calgary today. Seriously, a short vacation to the sun. And what happens? It freaking snows in Calgary! Turn on those furnaces everyone!   Green […]


Sep
30

Some Bigly Good News for Once?

So, after weeks and months of wandering in the wilderness, the energy sector, nay the world, was finally blessed with some seeming good news this week, at least enough to temporarily lift spirits that were otherwise sitting despondently nursing a warm gin and tonic. That is, before reality and the overwhelming negativity of the analyst community and the market at large crushed this nascent hope like a bug.   What are these good news/bad news stories?   Someone Blinked As postulated in this space last week, OPEC did indeed surprise the market with an announcement […]


Sep
23

Deja vu Redux, Version 15.4

Look, I have to write about it, it’s become a big deal and it is the most compelling/interesting thing going on in the energy sector this week.   That’s right, I’m talking about an apparent Canadian invasion of New York City, with Rachel Notley attending “Climate Week” and Justin Trudeau addressing the 71st General Assembly of the United Nations. I mean seriously, has there ever been a time when a confluence of events has brought Canada’s leaders so close to the power and influence we so desperately crave? In one fell swoop, we are once […]


Sep
16

Oops!

As we enter year 3 of this big giant mess of an energy industry, I feel myself compelled to put on my Saudi Arabia hat and ask myself – has it all been worth it? Sometimes a little introspection is important especially because I believe that Saudi Arabia needs to own up the abject failure of its strategy, not that I have any strong feelings about this or anything.   I don’t say that lightly and I know that many will dispute this given the state on the energy industry. However, if you take a step […]


Sep
09

It’s All a Big Deal

It’s amazing isn’t it? Last week I predicted a rebound in M&A and then whammo, here we go. I gotta get me some lottery tickets.   I suppose the big news this week is the announced Enbridge-Spectra mega merger, which will create the largest North American pipeline and energy infrastructure company, the fourth largest company in Canada (enterprise value of $165 billion) and an energy transportation colossus based right here in little old Calgary.   This is an exciting deal on many levels: it is a sign that M&A is back in a big way, it […]


Sep
02

It’s Labour Day and that means…

Nope, not a pro-union polemic or an ode to summer in Canada. Instead, more of an observational piece designed to make everyone feel a bit better heading into the last weekend of summer. Earlier this week, Tervita announced that it had sold its service rig business to High Arctic, a deal which followed on Strad Energy Service’s acquisition of Red Neck Rentals a couple of weeks ago   There has been ink spilled already on these deals, discussing whether so and so got fair value, or who won the deal or whatever. I`m not going […]


Aug
26

A Blast From the Past?

  **Editor’s Note, the subject matter below while topical is somewhat older news, however, for 10.9 billion reasons, I could not bring myself to write anything about the recent first quarter economic update for the province of Alberta delivered this week, on the off chance I said something I might regret later, like “dumpster fire of an economic plan” or “now I know what the Romans felt like while Nero fiddled…”. So instead you get the following…**   There has been a lot of press coverage given recently to a uniquely Albertan energy issue and it […]


Aug
19

Of Course Their Crisis was Worse

So here I sit, all hot and bothered again.   It seems that not a week can go by where some article comes out that demonstates either a puzzling lack of knowledge about what is happening in the oil patch, or displays a remarkable level of tone deafness to the plight of the economically critical and troubled regions including Alberta, B.C. and Saskatchewan.   I refer of course to the recent coverage of a memo written inside the Federal Government and delivered to the Labour Minister postulating that the effects of the slowdown in the […]


Aug
12

Who Owes What to Who

The doldrums of summer means it is time to harp on my favourite subject again.   No, not the Alberta government suing itself over power companies legally walking away from “more unprofitable” Power Purchase Arrangements, even though I may comment on that at a future date because it is actually quite funny.   And no, not the U.S. election or Donald Drumpf since on the advice of valued friends and colleagues, I have gone cold turkey on what was becoming a truly unhealthy obsession with the cheeto.   So none, of those.   What I […]


Aug
05

A Silver Lining in Gas???

Just back from vacation so it is going to be brief this week, apologies to all who are used to these missives being the long, verbose rantings of a sometime gasbag.   Speaking of gas, there is the strangest sound I am hearing and I can’t quite figure out what it is, but it is awfully familiar to anyone old enough to remember the world before people were able to light their taps on fire in West Virginia.   Yes, it is indeed a strange noise but in many ways it resembles the soft thump, […]


Jul
29

Another Week, Another Political Coronation

So, I guess since I set the precedent last week, I have to Hillary up this week’s edition of the blog, the only unfortunate part being that a) I am on vacation, so time, access to electronics and, quite frankly, motivation is a bit lacking; and b) I don’t know if it is either appropriate or normal to write a poem about a female candidate for president.   Hmm, let’s just think about that for a second. Hillary Clinton is the first woman ever to be nominated by a major party to run for President […]


Jul
22

Are You Sufficiently Terrified Yet?!?!?!?!

So I was thinking about this whole Republican Convention thing all this week, as really, how could I not? And amid the whole chaos and anger and back-slapping and self-congratulatory craziness, I was reminded of a number of things.   First off, we live in a terrifying world, I mean after all roving bands of illegal immigrant criminals and hordes of killer radical Islamic terrorists roam the streets of a once great nation, ravaging our wives and daughters and slaughtering our sons and fathers. Even the gay ones! It’s horrible and awful, and, and, and…   […]


Jul
15

And… suddenly I’m busy. Now what?

I have been giving some thought to the subject of the “recovery” because at some point, all markets turn around. And it seems that in the context of North America there are going to be some significant challenges once the recovery gets fully in swing.   Never mind the timing, the reality is that in many cycles, the recovery happens a lot faster than most expect and at a time and place that is least expected. Whether it’s a green light on LNG kick-starting North East BC or a sustainable oil price rally over $60 […]


Jul
08

A Parade of Random Thoughts

As some of you may be aware, Calgary has three distinct seasons – winter, construction and Stampede. And the first day of Stampede is, as everyone knows, a sort of stat holiday, with the Stampede parade hitting the streets of our fair city to entertain one and all with bands, clowns, marchers, VIPs and the like.   So in deference to the Parade and the free holiday I am taking, this week’s missive is both late and a bit random, knowing full well that next week is virtually certain to be a Stampede-themed annoyance.   […]


Jul
01

Happy June 31st!

Well look at that, another three months gone by and it is time to do a Q2 report card on my bold predictions. I am not sure how I was supposed to factor Brexit and the like into my fearless forecast, but I guess world events are always a risk, and that for every negatiove to a forecast, there can always be a positive.   Also it is July 1 (or June 31 according to my watch) and that means it is Canada’s birthday. Congratulations Canada on 149 years of hockey, apologizing, toques, good government, prosperity and […]


Jun
24

Does It Walk Like a Duck?

There has been a lot of ink spilled lately about that infamous and endangered North American waterfowl, the Shale Duck, otherwise known as the Fracklog Mallard or, more specifically, wells that are drilled but uncompleted, or DUC. At any rate, we have discussed this previously but it bears repeating because their impact, both in reality and in perception, is important in understanding some of the price dynamics floating around and the real and psychological impact that these creatures are having.   First the basics. As the name implies, these are wells that have been drilled […]


Jun
17

We Know it’s a Dirty Business

As I was thinking about last week’s soapbox tap dance, I started to think more about other popular perceptions of the oil and gas industry. Or should I say more generally how the oil and gas industry is perceived in the managed message we all hear on a regular basis.   And that message we hear is that the fossil fuel industry is dirty.   Sure – 100% agree. It is dirty. Fossil fuels are found underground and require tremendous amounts of energy and dirty, hard work to remove. And once they are out of […]


Jun
10

Why does it cost so much?

A bit of a random walk and navel gazing this week as I process a number of seemingly unrelated events into what an almost formulated point…   First, while in Montreal I discovered that while I drive a gas-guzzling truck, my nieces don’t even want drivers’ licenses. They don’t drive, they don’t want to drive. They get everywhere by bus, subway, ride-sharing and the like, so who needs it?   “Shocking” I said.   “That’s what all their friends do” countered my sister.   “Hmm,” thought I, “Whatsoever does this mean?”   Never mind whether […]


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