Crude Observations

Well, another three months have gone by and it seems that all of the progress we made in the second quarter has been mercilessly unwound by forces both within and outside of our control.   And the result is that my fearless forecast of 2018 appears to have completely upended and sent on its merry way as pipelines got under way and then were stopped, stopped pipelines were suddenly back underway and once left for dead pipelines (no, not Energy East) appear to have been resurrected and suddenly have a schedule.   Production growth continues […]

I don’t know about you guys, but I find the energy sector to be a really complicated industry. It’s multi-faceted and there are so many aspects to it. There is an up/mid/downstream, there’s exploration, production, transportation and retail. There are multiple products, raw and refined, petrochemicals, onshore, offshore, conventional and unconventional, shale, sands, rules, regulations, environmental considerations, consultations, land claims, farm-ins, joint ventures, cartels, multinationals, IOC, seven sisters, seven dwarves… It’s never-ending and enough to make your head spin.   And then there’s the terminology – rathole, annulus, toolpush, birdbath, mud, dog collar, cat walk, […]

I don’t know about you, but every once in a while I wake up in a cold sweat with a sense of impending doom. I’m sure this is a fairly common occurrence and the product of an over-active mind and not some manifestation of my advancing years or chicken wing habit.   But what caused this panic? Was it the planned reckless use of the Notwithstanding Clause by Doug Ford in his no-holds barred efforts to show Toronto City Council that he’s the new sheriff in town? Was it the ongoing NAFTA renegotiation or the […]

That’s right, the NFL is back and for the next 5 months I get to stay up late and watch PVR’d football games while the rest of my family snores away, oblivious to my ridiculous addiction which is so bad that last year I watched a Cleveland game. Why am I bringing up football in an energy focused blog? Well first of all, because I’m super-excited for football, always have been and always will be. Secondly (and thematically) because like all true fans, I have been consuming a never ending barrage of top 10 lists […]

Usually the Friday before Labour Day is a quiet time. A time for reflection before it gets super busy in the fall. An opportunity to calmly lay out a reasoned list of things to watch for over the next few months – issues that need a critical eye, undercurrents that may not be entirely evident but could impact the energy space, emergent trends requiring analysis or upcoming events that will be of major significance.   This time frame works because it is after all the last long weekend of summer, before school gets under way […]

So I was away this past week – squeezed in one last summer trip, to my hometown of Montreal. A short trip, enough time to turn off the brain, gobble some smoked meat, visit friends and family and get caught in what appears to be the largest series of construction projects in Canadian history (yes, I know, equalization).   But I’m home now and before cleaning my skeleton of a blog, I decided to check the news feed to see if anything interesting happened while I was away since I had elected not to look […]

Remember last week when I said my blog was going to be unpopular? Well I was right. I did indeed receive some feedback of the opposite of positive variety. Oh well, it happens, right? I mean not everyone agrees about everything.   For those of you who don’t recall or didn’t read it because you thought it was going to be one of my damn poems again, the gist of it was as follows:   No, the Saudi dispute is not evidence that the Energy East pipeline project needs to be revised. No, it is […]

So here I sit reading all the blather about Canada’s escalating dispute with Saudi Arabia, which actually is more like Saudi Arabia’s dispute with itself or Saudi Arabia acting like a spoiled and petulant child because someone called them on being stuck in the middle-ages, mean-spirited and disrespectful of human rights.

So here we are. Week 3 of me trying to be brief and let’s be truthful with each other. It’s not actually going that well. It’s hard. I know it, you know it, my family knows it. I can’t help it. I’m naturally long-winded. After all, why do something in 2 words when you can more easily do it in 167?

Since I’m continuing on my vacation and shorter blog theme from last week, I am going to keep this week light and frivolous. Fortunately I am able to spend a few days at home before heading out on a family road trip which means what? Well if you are in my house it means a little tidy up activity (remember this is a blog – not all things presented occur as described – artistic license).   At any rate, I decided a fun thing to do would be to clean up a bookshelf or two. […]

Seeing as it’s July and summer and everyone I know is on or has been on vacation, I have made a summer resolution. And that resolution is, for the time being at least, to cut down on the excess verbiage in these weekly missives.  That’s right, I am going to try and make them shorter. I will park the flowery prose I typically use and instead get right down to business.   That is indeed my covenant with my readers. Brevity. Succinctness. Economy in description. To the point punchiness. Pithy yet brief. You get the […]

So enough with all the patriotism and all that jazz. We’ve spent the past several weeks with lists and itemized reasons why Canada is such an awesome place even though no one wants to invest here. We’ve enumerated the many reasons why Donald Trump is risking global prosperity in his ridiculous attempts to restore balance to only one side of the trade equation. We’ve lamented trade wars, we’ve bragged about Canada’s personality, we’ve raged at the injustice of a lack of pipelines.   We’ve done all that, but do you know the one thing we […]

Can you believe another quarter has come and gone? I mean seriously that was fast. It felt much more like a short 90 days. And it feels like the world has changed in those 12 weeks since I last looked at my forecast. So much happens in three months that it’s hard to stay on top of things. I mean yeah, I’m pretty sure I’ve been glued to Twitter for at least the last 2,160 hours which of course has helped me keep up with the news.

Alright, this week represents yet another opportunity to celebrate a birthday, although this time it is Canada’s birthday (really darling, you don’t look a day over 151). Accordingly, in true patriotic fashion and fully of the mind to exploit the tariff driven nationalist fervour (take that American yogurt!) that we seem to be experiencing, I am going to lazily reduce, reuse and recycle a number of columns written on previous Canada Days into one truly magnificent ode to our wonderful and quirky country.

One of the many benefits of doing a blog for so long is that you develop annual traditions such as my Sweet 16 challenge, the annual fearless forecast and quarterly review as well as this week’s ode to laziness, the ubiquitous birthday list! That’s right, each year I throw together a lazy list of energy reflections. This year there are 53 of them because I am turning 53. Holy free-holy Batman! That’s a lot of years. Last year I celebrated that I had been able to get my weight down to less than 4 times […]

It’s been an interesting and momentous week hasn’t it? Where to start? G7 debacle? North Korea? OPEC? I mean there is so much going on, only some of which seem to affect us as Canadians, but of course that is hopelessly naïve since it all impacts us in some way, especially as to how we interact with the United States. Which of course means that this is totally about that surreal G7 meeting, the fallout and trade. OPEC can wait until next week.

OK folks, I think it’s about time we had an honest discussion about widening price differentials against WTI, lack of rail capacity for shipping and the spectre of trucking oil to refineries because of massive pipeline constraints. We also need to have a very serious conversation about the over-production of gas in a trapped market which is causing prices per Mcf to crater and prompting widespread shut-ins of producing wells.

But … I told you so. Seriously, like at least 4 times in the past four weeks. I even wagered money on it. And I never gamble. Anyway, in the true spirit of all “I told you so’ers” I fully intend to gloat and bask in my glory. Ahh, that feels great. What did I tell you? That the Federal government would buy Kinder Morgan Canada’s TransMountain Pipeline and related assets in order to get the project moving forward.   Admittedly, I didn’t get all the details bang on. I neglected to account for the […]

So here we are. Less than a week to go. The final word. The last hurrah. The big close. Bottom of the ninth, two out, nobody on. Fourth and 18 from the 37, one second on the clock. Hail Mary time. The final countdown. Game 7 – overtime. The whole enchilada. Time to get ‘er done. All or nothing. Go for broke. Last shot. The clock is about to strike midnight. The beams are about to cross. Henderson! The ball is tipped – it’s one shining moment! The last kick at the cat. Death or […]

That’s right folks, there is a Royal Wedding this weekend and it is time for celebration. Thus, as dutiful servants of the Crown, most of us Canucks will be donning our fascinators and heading to the nearest Hose & Hound or Parrot & Duke or Rat & Spleen British-themed neighbourhood pub to watch the nuptials of young bonny Prince Harry and the American pretender Meghan Markle. On top of that, it’s also Victoria Day weekend, the celebration of the birth of Queen Victoria. Or as we call it here – May Long.

It’s been a big week in the energy sector, hasn’t it? What with Donald Trump bailing out of the UN/Iran nuclear agreement, supply squeezes and other volatility, it would appear that my tongue-in-cheek forecast of $300 oil is well on its way, right? And, with all the exciting developments on the Canadian pipeline front this past week, well it seems like…. Oh wait, there were no developments on the Canadian pipeline front. Sorry. And $300 oil? Not a real thing. But, hey, it’s important to make it all about us, right?

The force is strong in this week’s blog. So, Someone is forecasting $300 oil. Aside from how ridiculous and reckless that is, let me first say, it comes from a pretty successful hedge fund investor and is backed by some thoughtful analysis. And, aside from being barking mad, the point of the call is that without significant investment in new fields and projects, there is a very real possibility that rising demand and  decline rates crush OPEC spare capacity and the fantasy of tight oil as a swing producer and we find ourselves in the […]

As a big National Football League fan, I have to say that this time of year is very exciting to me with the schedule coming out last week and this week getting all wrapped up in the draft, contemplating how badly some of the teams with the top draft picks will screw up this year, which promising young quarterback will be ruined by the New York Jets, the usual.   One of the most fun things to do is to read and obsess about the 367 mock drafts that get prepared because there is nothing […]

So here’s a thing that has been in the back of my mind since I started my blog. Maybe all of you out in cyber-land can give me some cogent advice and let me know whether it’s a good idea or whether you think I have been spending too much time reading my own press clippings. What I’ve been thinking is that it’s about time for me to branch out into writing in a more formal way.

Well that was an interesting week wasn’t it? I feel sometimes that I write these blogs on a Friday and by the time I come back into work on Monday, the whole world has changed or the premise of what I was saying has been turned upside down or something happens that seems to indicate that I am some kind of Energy Prophet, able to peer into the arcane depths of this most confusing sector and emerge Gandalf like with the one true path.

OK, I admit it. Time to come clean. I lied. I never intended to stop doing the blog. It’s too addictive. I can’t quit the energy sector and the bully pulpit this blog gives me that easily. So I lied to you. It was a cheap April Fool’s stunt, mainly concocted to distract from my egregious forecasts. But many of you saw right through it, so kudos to you. On the other hand, I did manage to fool quite a few people, so yay for me! I guess.

Well, here it is. Time for a long thought out and serious decision. I have elected, after much determination, consternation and consultation with friends, family, colleagues, the leaders of the seven major world religions and numerous governmental bodies to make this edition of the blog, being Easter Sunday, April 1 2018 on or before 11:59 AM Mountain Standard Time the last. It’s been a good run, but with the energy sector in such good hands, I think the timing and reason for the end is obvious. I have nothing left to add to the discussion.

I believe that I owe my loyal readership a massive apology. It all starts with last week’s Sweet 16 energy bracket and the fact that I was in such a tizzy about the opening round basketball games that I didn’t give anywhere near enough thought on what I was writing and picking and I sure paid the price. Well at least my NCAA bracket did. I hope no one took any of my picks all that seriously.

Wow, has it been a year already? I guess it has, and here I sit in my office transfixed by the opening rounds of my favourite sports tournament of the year and contemplating the meaning of a day stuck between the Ides of March and St Patrick’s Day. And as always, as my basketball bracket implodes and I see all my bets wither and die, I am reminded that the big dance is also happening in the energy world and, as tradition dictates, I need to do my picks.

Last week I was in Montreal visiting family and while there I was asked the dreaded question that most people in Alberta fear. And no, it wasn’t pipeline or Jason Kenney related.  No, the question du jour was “How’s business? It must be tough in Alberta right now.” Ugh, cue the deer in the headlights expression for me, right? I mean I have a hard enough time telling people what I do, never mind articulating if I’m being successful at it!

OK, a bit of a different spin this week as I have been a bit busy trying to do my actual day job! First off, the date. February 30th is one of my favourite days of the year – I’ve always found that the dog days of February, namely the 30th and 31st are among the coolest days of the year where the fog of winter starts to give way to overwhelming anticipation of a sunny, happy spring. Or is it a reflection of the drudgery of a winter that seems to have no end.

This past week I have found myself engaged in a fair amount of soul-searching. And not surprisingly, I have found on further reflection that I have spent a disproportionate amount of time in recent weeks (OK, months) piling on Canada and pointing out the foibles, weaknesses, regulatory hurdles, lack of capital infrastructure woes and other flaws in the Canadian energy sector. And truth be told, I feel kinda bad about it. I mean it’s my country right?

I held off on writing too much or really about this week’s topic last week because it was all so fresh and I hadn’t had a chance to absorb it – not to mention it is an excruciatingly boring topic. Anyway, last week, the Liberal government released its long-awaited reforms to the way energy projects are assessed and approved in Canada (already bored right?). And, of course, as in all things Liberal, it’s a bit confusing.

So there I sat on Thursday, at home, watching Calgary Snowpocalypse 2018 unfold all around me. We have received at last count about 35 to 50 cm of snow in the last 24 hours. In non-metric speak, that is about 12 to 18 inches. Part and parcel of that is a snow day, because driving in these conditions can at best be described as white knuckled terror. Of course as we all know, it’s not the driving so much as the drivers.

Here’s an urban myth that I never really believed: the camera adds 10 pounds. Who knew? I mean I suppose intuitively I knew it, I just didn’t believe it. Now I know.  And those extra pounds? Neither evenly nor fairly distributed. I learned this because I recently had the privilege of appearing on an edition of CTV2’s Alberta Primetime. a daily news show covering topics of interest to people in the Province of Alberta.

Last week’s ranty diatribe about the Canadian energy sector sure seemed to strike a nerve with a number of readers, as it certainly appears that there are many people who, like me, are completely frustrated with the state of the industry and the attitude of various levels of government towards it.

This is one of those weeks where there was a lot of stuff getting under my skin or poking at me. Irritatingly tapping me on the shoulder to the point where I almost felt the need to turn around and scream “What!?!?!?!” until I realized of course that my co-workers might very well have me committed!

No, not the market. Not oil. I’m good with that. I’m thinking more of the great global fossil fuel divestment movement. In fact, I am so moved by the effortless logic of their position that I have decided to liquidate all of my oil and gas holdings, yes, even as the market appears to be finally turning forever in my favour.

Are you ready for it? Because it is that time of year again where I lay myself bare to all of your collective scorn and ridicule and put out the one and only Fearless Forecast that you absolutely must read, Right Now!!!!! In all seriousness, this could very well be the most important thing you read today. Before you put another dime to work in the energy sector.

Happy New Year everyone! It’s great to be back – refreshed and ready to tackle the raging bull that is going to be 2018. In fact, I am so confident in the future that I will say without hesitation that 2018 is going to be significantly better than 1918, which as we all know was the last year of World War I. But before we go there, time for THE RECKONING!!!!

So this is Christmas. And what have I done? Another year older and a new one about to begin. But really, John Lennon aside, this is it, the last of my lazy Christmas/holiday season blogs. I mentioned earlier that this is the time of year I get lazy, well it’s also the time of year I take a brief hiatus.

Last week as everyone knows, I divulged one of my deepest and darkest secrets, namely that I am hopelessly addicted to cheeseball Hallmark Movie Channel Christmas movies, most of which seem to star Lacey Chabert. It was a soul-cleansing moment for me and I certainly appreciate the support of the blog community that I have received.

Well, that was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? No sooner had the OPEC deal been extended, signed and delivered as promised than that old sneaky spoiler of the party – unimpeded, explosive shale oil growth – raised its ugly head again and promptly knocked 10% off the price of oil in less time than it takes to say: “the moose at the gate should have told you”.

By now everyone involved in the oil and gas industry will have heard about the outcome of the bi-annual special gathering of OPEC ministers and the NOPEC crew (otherwise known as Russia). will they, won’t they, how long, who will be the first to cheat – these are all interesting questions that will have interesting answers and in fact some have already been dealt with and the opinion makers for all the major publications have had their say already and they are all far, far wiser than I so I wouldn’t dare to cast up […]

Every once in a while, I will realize that I have spent way too much time talking about oil, complaining about pipelines, Permania, free money and the impending “End of Big Oil because of Electric Vehicles”. And it’s on those days that my attention turns to oil and coal’s neglected stepsister who we know as natural gas. And in the spirit of American Thanksgiving, I would like to say that I, for one, am thankful for natural gas, the current turkey of the energy sector.

OK, so no more cop-out blogs for at least the foreseeable future. I am instead going to try, this time around, to do a stream of consciousness style ramble, starting on one topic and moving, hopefully seamlessly, to various others, most of them seemingly unrelated except that they probably bother me a little bit. So I guess they do have something in common after all?

Just over one year. A smidge over 12 months. 52 weeks and change. 367 days. 8,808 hours. 528,480 minutes. 31,708,800 seconds. Seems like a lot, but really it hasn’t been that long in life terms. At any rate, that is the approximate amount of time (wrong as soon as I wrote it) that has elapsed since Donald Trump stunned the universe (and by universe I mean the Democrats) and won the presidency.

Alright folks, enough ranting. It’s too tiring to be angry all the time, even though the government makes it so easy. This week, it’s mostly positive stuff. Why? Because oil is solidly above $50 and there are many reasons for optimism. In fact, I’m so pumped that I just bought tickets to an “Up With People” revival.

Every once in a while, I am struck by events or occurrences around me and struggle to figure out what is really happening. As an example, in the energy industry, news comes at you fast and furious and from all angles. It’s like chaos theory – it’s all non-linear and causation is often difficult if not impossible to find no matter how much you think you squashed that butterfly under your heel.

So I was reading the other day (yes I do that) about Peak Oil. Remember Peak Oil? That was the theory that the discovery, exploitation and production of that non-renewable resource we all love to hate but can’t live without was going to hit the proverbial peak and inevitable decline because there just weren’t any more big oil deposits left to be found. So prices would spike and force the world to find alternatives.

Ever get one of those weeks when not much of any substance happens and there is a lot of sitting around and thumb twiddling? Well I just had one of those. I am not even close to being fired up about anything today, so it is going to be stretch to find anything to rant about. Which may be a good thing. Although, why not a bit of manufactured outrage?

Here I sit on a fabulous Friday, watching what few leaves remain on the trees out my office window turn yellow and fly away, contemplating the state of the world and preparing to head home for the long weekend celebration of Canadian Thanksgiving. For my American readers, we do our Thanksgiving early, mainly because all the crops are in by mid-October and it’s about to get super-dee-duper cold.

I know the quarter isn’t over yet but the markets are closed for the weekend so I figured I may as well take a look at all those fancy pants predictions I made back in January and see how I’ve been making out.

Yup, you heard it here first (or second, maybe even third), this is the week that it all happened, the week that we can finally call the oil price crisis officially over.

Last week, I was not so subtly informed by one of my more prominent readers that the blog was a tad boring and that it was high time to get back to a little storm and fury.

Ah, the week after Labour Day. It’s those heady days when everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) is back from holidays, school buses are out in force, traffic is a complete and unmitigated nightmare disaster and, in theory, people get back to work.

So there you have it. Summer as we know it is over. I suppose it’s time for all of us lazy bones to get back to work and do something productive. I mean aside from the super important blog writing.

In honour of the Dog Days of summer, I am going to do a couple lazy, hazy, crazy mini-rants on some topics that managed to get under my skin this week. One is energy related, the other is uniquely Canadian so no offense taken if my American readers take a pass on it, but it’s a big deal to us Canadian business owners.   Dog # 1   A recent news article said that Petronas  (of crushed BC LNG dreams fame) was considering investing in a pipeline in Western Canada to help to monetize its […]

Look, I know I do this same column seemingly every few months, but really, isn’t anyone else tired of reading about the pending demise of the energy industry? It seems the more things change, the more they stay the same. I just had a quick look at oil prices and note that as of Thursday August 17, the price of oil was $46.98 which is exactly eleven cents more than it was at the same date one year ago. What’s up with that?

I’m back! Did anyone miss me? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Probably not I guess. But I missed all of you. Really. I did.