Alright fans, hangers on and wannabes. This is the week you have all been waiting for. The missive with the prediction. The rant on current issues and a review of our political future. A wash and rinse of the tea leaves, revealing the inner secrets of the Canadian body politic. A bona fide prognostication of epic proportions on this, the MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION EVER! Well at least the most important election of the modern era. Hmm, well maybe not. How about the most important election of the 21st century? No? Since the Free Trade Election? Since Donald Trump 1.0? Since parliament was prorogued by a rogue PM trying to preserve power? Since Confederation? Someone?
And I’m really mad, because this is NFL Draft Weekend and I have better things to do. So I’m doing a write-in vote for Vontae Mack. No matter what. So there.
Okay, fine. This particular federal election is the most important one since… the last one.
Look, I get it. The issues are big. Housing costs. Crime. Opioid epidemics. Cost of living. And those are just the ones that mattered in October when the Conservatives had something like an 87% lead.
Then something changed. What could that have been. It’s at the tip of my tongue, give me a minute.
Oh wait, I remember now!
Trump got elected. And with that election everything changed. The Liberal party got its political mojo back. Finally. Well for them at least.
They at long last had a foil that wasn’t just the opposition and that foil and his movement was something they could use to talk shit about, rile up Canadians and then say, look he’s just like Pierre!
If only they could figure out why they were so deeply and completely unpopular even while the conservatives were led by a candidate who, to the vast majority of people, comes off as distinctly unlikable himself.
Fortunately, Donald Trump himself did the LPC the favour of showing them who their weak link was by publicly ridiculing him in front of the world. That weak link was none other than Justin Trudeau and his unpopular budgets, his unpopular sunny ways and his unpopular voice.
While it took far too long for Trudeau to step aside, all it took was a mere announcement of his intent to do so to start to turn the tide for the Liberal Party.
Turns out Canadians really, really disliked Justin Trudeau.
After that, it was all a matter of running an expedited leadership contest to coronate a boring, if somewhat prickly, former central banker grandpa in a suit (for gravitas) and call a snap election all in the hopes that the leading Conservative Party wouldn’t have the capacity or the improvisational skill to adapt quickly enough to stop the rise in fortunes of the New (Old) Liberal Party.
The final piece of the puzzle was really a no-brainer. The Liberals needed the NDP to trip over their own shoelaces and they have been nothing but accommodating.
Faced with a tired message delivered by a blunderingly inept leader and having the spectre of a Trump-induced trade war and recession with no chance of forming government to combat it, the NDP voter this go around is faced with an existential choice – waste a vote for a party that is in the hip pocket of the Liberals anyway, or jump on the gravy train passing directly in front of you and save your Jacobin impulses for the next election. As a result, NDP support has completely cratered, so much so that they could conceivably lose official party status.
While many say the story of this election has been the Liberal resurgence which has been both remarkable and predictable, I would say that is secondary to the self-immolation of the NDP under Jagmeet Sigh.
The party of Tommie Douglas, Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton has managed to go from its kingmaker status in the LAST SITTING of parliament where a simple non-confidence vote could conceivably have seen them become the official opposition to a Conservative majority via a Trudeau-led electoral evisceration of the Liberals to political irrelevance with polling numbers that would embarrass the Peoples Party of Canada. All in the space of 6 months. A complete disaster.
That said, the flipping of the polls, while it wouldn’t have been possible without Jagmeet’s most remarkable collapse is an indictment of the staying power of the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre’s core messages that worked so effectively against Trudeau over the last few years.
And their inability to pivot quickly enough is what may ultimately do them in, aided and abetted so masterfully by outside actors like Donald Trump and the aforementioned Mr. Singh.
And don’t even try to tell me that Mark Carney as a candidate has been so compelling and inspiring or is some mythical “man for the moment”. He isn’t. He fits a role and an image and is clearly the “anti-Trudeau”.
He is uninspiring as a speaker, lacking both rhetorical flourish and charisma. He is prickly and condescending when confronted, a trait that is going to be sorely tested should he win and bother to show up for Question Period or should he find himself in negotiations with anyone in the Trumpian orbit. If Trudeau was the “Governor”, I am sure that Trump will find some derogatory nickname for Mark Carney that will be particularly needling.
Finally, the Liberal platform is a serious dud. Spending is out of control, the chairs on the Titanic are proposed to be re-arranged via some accounting tomfoolery and while insiders try to frame this as an election and platform to deal with the “worst crisis in Canadian history”, it is surprisingly thin on any actual plans to deal with that crisis.
It’s almost like Mark Carney – the erstwhile “most celebrated economist in the history of economics and greatest Canadian ever” had pretty much nothing to do with the recycled BS that is in the Liberal’s plan to increase the debt by a QUARTER OF A TRILLION dollars in four years.
Because if this is the best a former central banker of two G7 countries and chairman of one of the biggest and best managed private equity funds in the world could come up with to safeguard Canada’s economy, we are in deep, deep doodoo.
And don’t think you get off easy either Mr. Conservative. The CPC platform is equally maddening, with deficits every year and a $100 BILLION increase in debt, assuming the private sector virtually explodes with tax-cut and red tape reduced growth.
For his part Pierre Poilievre ran a floundering campaign for the first month. The messaging was incoherent when it wasn’t downright juvenile. The policy approaches seemed confused and the Trumpian elephant in the room was ignored while it stomped everything in its path.
Whether this was bad advice or inability to change, it lost time and quite possibly the election.
Canadians were rightly mad at where 10 years of Liberal rule had left us.
Higher crime. Runaway house prices. Deficits for as far an economist could forecast. Opioids. Collapsing investment. GDP per capita virtually last in the G20 and growing slower than my stock portfolio. It is there for the taking. Do the Conservatives not want it? Did they fail to ignite the voters after the tax was axed? Was there no slogan to seal the deal?
That said, there is still a vote to be held and notwithstanding the polls done virtually every hour, Canadians across the country will have the final say. Ah, who am I kidding. Canadians across Ontario, well mainly around Toronto, will have the final say.
Where do I sit? Do I have an endorsement?
It’s hard to say. I have been telling people that I am a one-issue voter. Because truth is, I don’t really see that much light between the two main parties. Much as people want us to believe it, Poilievre is not Trump-lite. He’s a mid-generation conservative raised in the tradition of Stephen Harper, not the Progressive wing of Joe Clark. But he’s not some semi-authoritarian wanna-be fascist. He’s just a bit annoying. And the Liberal Party isn’t some left-wing communist dictatorship. They are a left-of-centre urban, globalist and Ontario-centric power-hungry political machine. For the most part, the policies just ain’t that different. They both want to grow the economy, one prompted by government subsidy (sorry, investment), the other by unleashing investment via tax reductions.
Sure, they break on the environment, but how committed to the climate file are the Liberals that they ditched their signature policy just to stay in power? Because let’s be 100% clear. Setting the Carbon tax to zero wasn’t some kind of populist move, it was “take the wind out of the gasbag’s sails so we have a fighting chance during the election and he has to change all his signs”.
At any rate, by this time Monday, it will all be over. As will my prediction… The prediction to end all predictions.
But first and for fun, let’s review some of the top things people have been talking about this election.
Elbows Up and Team Canada
Is there anything more annoying than jingoism and nationalism? Yes, there is. It’s fake nationalism and quasi-tough jingoism being used and abused for political expediency. Just a few short years ago Canada was a post-nationalist, settler, genocidal false country. Now we are expected to band together as one to defend our honour against the beastly MAGA hordes and get our “elbows up” in some fake self-defense posture to fend off the 51st state. And we have to suffer through that obsequious Mike Myers and Mark Carney hockey ad where they reminisce about old white people Toronto stuff. Ick.
51st State and Tariffs
This is the second part of the above. The whole 51st state stuff started when Trudeau went cap in hand to Mar-a-Lago and Trump decided to punk Trudeau and Canada. He got a reaction and here we are. He isn’t going to let it go, ever. It’s not in his nature. A galvanizing election issue. Canadian independence! We love Canada. Elbows Up! See above. This too is not a thing. But politicians will never let a crisis go unwasted, including (especially) Liberals so we had to suffer through how Poilievre and the evil conniving traitor Danielle Smith were going to sell out Canada to become a vassal state of the US. Puerto Rico north.
Tariffs
I did five blogs on tariffs and I’m spent. They are dumb.
Why the Oilers Currently Suck
Mark Carney fulfilled his boy’ish hood dream of skating at practice with the Oilers by leveraging his new PM’hood. He donned his custom Oilers jersey and rusty goalie skates and awkwardly whooped it up with the boys. An infamous photo-op/meme is him firing a puck off the wrong foot toward an empty net and missing it by about 20 feet*. If that had been Poilievre, the campaign would have been over. Instead, the curse went the other way – Leon Draisatl missed most of the rest of the regular season with a mystery injury and the Oilers haven’t been the same since and are now in danger of being swept from the playoffs. Thanks Carney! How the F is that Team Canada?
*Note that if Stu Skinner had been in the net for the Carney shot, it would have gone in.
Old People in Ontario hate young people and conservatives!
Speaking of memes, there is a photograph circulating of some old coot at a Carney rally in Brampton flipping a double-bird to the photographer, supposedly as an act of defiance against Conservatives. Look, I know the circumstances, but… it was an almost perfect metaphor for the largely affluent boomer/home-owner population of Ontario who have overwhelmingly turned toward “one of their own” – the grey-haired patrician banker – to preserve for their remaining years the economic security blanket of their precious homes and screw the younger folk just wanting some affordable housing. Again, if this had been a Poilievre supporter doing this, election loser. In this case? Liberal affirmation of how tough they are.
Energy Infrastructure and the Environment and Team Canada
This was supposed to be one of the biggest issues of the campaign. Canadian support for energy infrastructure, making us less dependent on the US for exports and getting things built. Growing production. Getting things done. Standing up for Canada against the big bad US of A.
The Conservatives proposed to get rid of/reform what are broadly perceived as obstacles to this – Bill C69 – the Infrastructure Assessment Act; the offshore tanker ban (C48) which effectively blocks any export oil pipeline outside of the lower Mainland and the proposed emissions cap on oil and gas which effectively singles out ONLY the oil and gas industry (85% of which is in Alberta) for extra crunchy carbon cost treatment and will eventually and inevitably act as a defacto cap on production of our single largest export and revenue generator for all levels of government. Killing investment and prosperity for generations to come etc. etc.
It seems that to a man, ecponomists across Canada are perplexed as to why this emissions cap exists and hasn’t been shelved. Well except one, the inimitable Mark Carney who both has “more experience with these things” and “knows better”.
Accordingly, because oil and gas doesn’t really matter to Double Bird Brantford guy and the rest of Ontario and because Mark Carney is an avowed climate zealot (he WROTE A BOOK ABOUT IT), none of these things will change under the LPC. A single issue that is galvanizing many voters in certain constituencies.
I still can’t afford a house?
That’s right. It’s the cost of living stupid. Get used to it says Boomer Double Bird. No party really has a solution but everyone proposes to light money on fire to solve it. Some money will even end up at Brookfield, which apparently everyone owns anyway, even if ownership means different things.
Preston Manning. Oy. Someone Tell Grandpa he can’t say those things in polite company
Preston Manning came out of hiding to inform the unwashed masses in Canada that electing the Liberals with their anti-oil and gas policies is going to cause a constitutional and separatism crisis in Canada the likes we haven’t seen since the last Quebec referendum. The audacity! The sheer gall! Tut tut said the mainstream media in Toronto – he is clearly off his rocker. Message to the ROC and the chattering class. Lousy timing, but … prepare yourself… he is right.
But the Liberals don’t care and have convinced Carney not to care, because stepping on the energy sector and villifying those crazy angry Albertans wins votes in both Ontario and Quebec and winning those provinces is all that matters. Sure, you could say you will repeal the moronic emissions cap, but they don’t have to, because they are winning. So why bother. It was never actually about Team Canada.
How are the Greens so bad at this?
Almost good at the environment. Garbage at everything else. If you ever want to be more than a one issue party, try losing the crazy fringe racist people who are just as cringy as the People’s Party kooks.
Crime!
Oh yeah, that. More jail!
The Military
We will all spend 2% of GDP. Eventually.
Opioids
This only matters as it regards the border. Otherwise, those people dying in the streets can keep doing their thing.
Doug Ford hates Pierre Poilievre
Aside from Trump, the single most damaging thing to happen to the CPC campaign was the Doug Ford re-election tour that preceded it. By forcing an early election (and winning), Ford gave all his fence-sitting voters the excuse to vote oppo-party federally because they had already voted conservative provincially. Why did he do that? Because he wants to run federally in 2029 and he thinks he can win. And he’s probably right.
These guys again?
Ah the Bloc Quebecois, a party once thought extinct. Hah! Think again suckers. Much like the Terminator, this party keeps coming and won’t stop.
They have higher poll numbers than the NDP and the leader leads Jagmeet in the poll question “Best choice to be PM”.
He’s a separatist. The NDP is so cooked.
Okay. Now on to the good stuff.
First, let’s revisit the (relevant) parties using the handy table below. Then I will make my prediction.
Liberal Party of Canada. (the current government)
Leader: Mark Carney
Slogan: It’s Time to Build. (everything except pipelines I guess)
Likes: Spending. Vaccines. Power. Vote-rich regions that keep them in power. The Middle class and those working hard to get there. Rare Earth Minerals. Investment Spending. Lecturing People who question us. Mike Myers. Neil Young.
Dislikes: Stephen Harper. Stephen Harper. Oil. Stephen Harper. Conservatives in general. Alberta. Pierre Poilievre. Donald Trump.
Claim to Fame: Balanced the budget once. Building a pipeline for Alberta. Minority government. No More Trudeau. Our new leader could take a subway in Toronto and no one would notice him. Canada’s natural governing partyTM , Bird flipping
Achilles Heel: Arrogance. Lying. SNC Lavalin (or whatever they are called). Narcissism. Hypocrisy. Building a pipeline for Alberta. Trudeau. Inability to control spending. Condescension.
Conservative Party of Canada. (official opposition)
Leader: Pierre Poilievre
Slogan: Canada First. For a Change. (seriously? I thought it was Bring it Home)
Likes: Cutting taxes. Cutting spending. The energy sector. Pipelines. Stephen Harper. Catchy slogans. The private sector. Unions who support them.
Dislikes: Trudeau. Carney. Freeland. Max. Bills C69 and C48. Taxes, especially if they are carbon. Emissions caps. The CBC.
Claim to Fame: Didn’t screw up the country during the Great Recession. Capable government in waiting and nowhere near as extreme as people make them out to be.
Achilles Heel: Social conservative influence in the party. Stephen Harper. Lack of credible bench strength on the economy. Occasionally, their leader. MAGA North and Trump. Questionable endorsements. Too many slogans, not enough oomph.
New Democratic Party.
Leader: Jagmeet Singh
Slogan: In it for you (umm, OK, sure. I thought you were in it for the pension)
Likes: Lots of taxes on rich people (loosely defined), Pharmacare. Dental plan. Social programs. The environment. Immigration. TAXES ON RICH PEOPLE FFS!
Dislikes: Energy. Stephen Harper. Spending cuts. Trump. Anything conservative.
Claim to Fame: Official Opposition when the Liberals got eviscerated in 2011. The ghost of Jack Layton (sadly fading). The colour orange.
Achilles Heel: Leader is lacking political acumen and knowledge. Lacklustre campaign. Perceived as not caring about Canada outside of GTA and GVA. Lost the union vote a long time ago. Liberals stole all their good ideas.
Bloc Quebecois (those guys)
Leader: Yves-François Blanchet
Slogan: Je choisis le Quebec (duh)
Likes: Quebec. Quebec. Quebec.
Dislikes: The Rest of Canada. Pipelines.
Claim to Fame: Still relevant.
Achilles Heel: A wasted vote if you want to make a difference federally. Oh, and the implicit racism.
Prediction
I have parsed the numbers. I have done the calculus. I have my opinion.
The Conservative Party of Canada has run an uneven campaign. They are nowhere near as evil as the Liberals would make them out to be. Their support in Western Canada is rock solid but they need Ontario to break right for them and some gains in Quebec and the Maritimes to make a difference.
The Liberals are of course the self styled natural governing party of (central) Canada and have run an aggressive demonization campaign against both the conservatives and Donald Trump. They have a new leader who is as exciting as window shears in an old lady’s picture window. They have successfully unshackled themselves from the Trudeau anchor and leveraged a trade war to their enduring advantage by scaring the bejeesus out of Ontario.
The NDP is dead in the water. Their traditional support is between 12% and 19%. Currently running below the Canadian political equivalent of the Mendoza line – 5%.
The Green Party is irrelevant except as a NDP vote stealer.
The Bloc is a force because they own the Quebec dialogue. But Montreal will be gaga for Carney
The PPC are what they are. Racist, xenophobic.
There are 199 of 343 seats in Quebec and Ontario and 32 in the Maritimes. BC has 42 and Alberta (34), Saskatchewan (14) and Manitoba (14) and the Territories (3 seats) round out the rest.
A majority is 172.
The LPC/Conservative split is currently 153/120.
The NDP meltdown puts 24 direct seats in play as well as many others given vote distribution.
This election will likely be over before I vote here in Calgary.
To be honest, we have two credible parties that can form the government. Each led by sane leaders who will accept results, put their version of Canada first and maturely govern the country. We have serious problems and both parties can tackle them.
As it regards my one big issue? If Carney had got his head out of his cynical ass on this one, I believe he might win a whole bunch of seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan and lay claim to being a “pan-Canadian” choice. But he didn’t and won’t. So I, like many others, will vote for the party that recognizes what an affront to a province and cash cow that policy really is.
Or I will vote for Vontae Mack. No matter what.
As for actual results outside of my own issues, Ontario double-bird and the collapse of the NDP tells me that we are headed for a Liberal Majority government. It feels inevitable at this point. Of course, I also picked Kamala Harris
The Final tally:
Liberals 185
Conservatives 132
NDP 2
Bloc 24
Green 0
Independent 0
PPC – thanks for playing, now go away.
Solid Liberal Majority.
What does it mean?
Spending will go up. Taxes will as well. Alberta will lose its mind and separatist sentiment will increase to 25%. Conflict and alienation abound. Trump will exploit it all. Team Canada will be parked and no new energy investment of consequence will be built let alone proposed.
Mark Carney wanted this – I sure hope he is a fast learner and better at governing than he is at shooting on open nets – Canada is way harder and our problems less easy to hit.
Singh is gone. Let the Notley era begin.
Poilievre may get stabbed in the back as well. Conservatives don’t do leaders losing well. Lots of people lining up. He may not last to the next election. Doug Ford and Tim Houston are lining up. Maybe I’ll run.
