It’s Blog time, time for a super scary Halloween edition filled with spooks, ghosts and surprises. Terrors both large and small, the usual litany of candy and trick or treating fun and, for those who want such things, a bold election prediction.
But first, Halloween. Way more fun than crazy election predictions, although I am sure I can weave some random bouts of politics into this. We had more kids than usual. Costumes were on the fantasy side. No one wore a garbage bag. No Trumps, Trudeaus, Kamala’s 0r Biden’s. It was a nice break. Now it’s over.
US Election
This is it, the big call. Drum roll, right?
Let me preface this by saying that back in January, in my Fearless Forecast, I predicted that the Trump Train was going to be derailed in 2024 by the Biden Harris Democratic ticket.
I can now guarantee that that is never going to happen.
Because Biden dropped out of the election and out of sight until Tuesday the 29th when he stumbled over his words and accidentally called people who support Trump garbage. This after a racist comedian at a Trump rally said Puerto Rico was full of garbage. And after Trump repeatedly called the United States a garbage can. He also continues to call people who support Kamala Harris garbage.
What in the world has happened to American politics?
When did it become such a stinking pile of garbage?
When I made that forecast, it was based primarily on a growing economy, a solid if unspectacular four year run, a return to presidential incumbency and a belief that at some point the Republicans would wake up from their trance and choose someone serious instead of the showman who amplifies all of humanities wort traits.
A veritable walking billboard for the Seven Deadly Sins.
But back to my point.
My call is obviously not going to happen. Instead of Trump v Biden 2, Electric Boogaloo we now have Trump v Harris after Biden stepped away from the race in June creating the dynamic currently at play.
So I guess I have to make a pick or take a side or something. Any endorsement I can give is clearly symbolic only as I have as much stroke in the US election as the paper towel I just used to clean the dust off my monitor. To be completely honest, maybe less!
But you pay to read my opinion so I’m going to give you one that is worth the price of admission.
But before I get there, it is worth pointing out that November 5, aside from being the most highly anticipated election this month, is also the NFL Trading Deadline.
Well played NFL. Is nothing sacred? Is there no day that you won’t seek to dominate? I mean it’s bad enough that you now own Christmas Day and have also expanded to 17 games with another on the way, or that the NFL is on TV seemingly all the time or that a midweek game between Carolina and Jacksonville can outdraw the freaking world series or that the 10 most watched broadcasts in US television history are all NFL games. More Americans watch the second day of the NFL draft combine than know Canada exists.
I mean, come on.
OK, enough avoidance. Let me share a few thoughts as to why I am where I am.
First off, if you hadn’t figured it out by now, I don’t like Trump. I never have and I never will.
From the media saturation that started in the 1980s when I was growing up in Montreal to the serial philandering, the crassness, the nouveau riche garishness, the ritual bankruptcies, the absurd business ventures, the reality show self-promotion, the covert and overt racism and shady business dealings – he’s just not my cup of tea. It happens. Sometimes you just don’t like a guy. But given I had no choice in who the GOP nominated nor a say in the election I accept that all I can really do is observe. So that’s what I have been doing.
Like many, I was shocked when he won in 2016 and, as someone who felt Hillary Clinton was the superior candidate for the actual job, I was extremely disappointed. That said, as an observer, I accepted the result and settled in to hopefully watch an unconventional politician grow into the role of president and lead my favourite neighbour to ever-greater heights.
While some things started to go sideways fairly early on (immigration, questionable cabinet choices), there were enough relative positives that you could actually sit on the sideline and wait. For example, there were many business-friendly policies implemented that allowed people who were already ahead to solidify their position and get even further ahead. The market was taking off and the economy that Obama left behind was self-sustaining and on fire. Hard to screw that up!
On the government side of things, I’m a fan of deregulation, especially where you’re removing actual red tape and not just creating a wild west free for all. As a business owner and occasional higher bracket income earner, I like a tax cut as much as the next guy. I think Wall Street and Main Street both matter, personal responsibility matters. I don’t have a problem with responsible people owning and operating guns in a responsible manner. I believe federal governments should have less power over our lives and not more and that they should keep their noses out of our business.
In short, if I lived in the United States, I would likely self-identify as a middle of the road white, college-educated, suburban Republican. Bread and butter for a Trump regime.
Ultimately, like many people, I ignored the nonsense for a long time as the sideshow it appeared to be and carried on with my personal business and life.
But eventually, for me, it started to come apart at the seams and while economically I was doing OK, the sense of value, right and wrong and what constituted good government started to erode.
So instead of being about stewardship of the economic ship, it became about something else entirely. Race-baiting and denial of human rights. Isolationism and authoritarianism. Corruption and cronyism. Constant chaos and airing of grievances. White nationalism and class warfare.
And it wasn’t any one specific thing, it was rather a cacophonous crescendo of crap that just kept coming and coming and never stopped. Every time you thought you could come up for air you were swept under by the next crisis, slight or break from reality scandal. And you never had the chance to come up for air.
I’m not even going to bother with the whole pandemic response thing.
Then Sleepy Joe Biden got elected and it felt, for a very brief period of time, that we could all get back to normal. Good government, slightly left of centre, checked by the power of Congress and Judiciary.
Even the chaotic nonsense of January 6 2021, where the insurrectionist mob trashed the capital in an attempt to thwart the peaceful handover of power felt like it was going to be dealt with in a proper way and that the Untied States could go back to normal (yet still stupid) partisan bickering and resume its role as a force for stability in a complicated and changing world.
Unfortunately, events conspired to take the United States in a different direction. Once getting a taste for power, a narcissist like Trump can never let go. That is obvious to me now. The mantra of the stolen election kept being repeated louder and louder and it was taken up by the chum-like wake of sycophants, grifters and hangers-on that a conspiracy addled, cultlike movement will inevitably attract. On top of this, the slowest moving series of indictments in criminal court history added to the inevitability of never getting rid of Trump. He needs to be in power to make it all go away.
Then the outside forces of malevolent dictators and imperialist opportunists like Putin started to peck away at the edges. Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing Biden and the US to pick sides and giving the isolationist MAGA’s a wedge. October 7 happened allowing a massive anti-semitic, anti-muslim wedge to be inserted into US politics as there are not one or two sides in the whole Middle Eastern conflagration – it’s 3-dimensional four-square.
At the same time, domestic challenges such as super high inflation from COVID stimulus and reopening economies, resultant increases in interest rates, housing affordability (see inflation), record levels of legal and illegal immigration, the decision to strike down Roe v Wade – all these things contributed to low approval ratings for Biden, weakened the prospects for re-election and emboldened the second rise of Trump.
All this notwithstanding the strongest and most dynamic economy in the world. Record stock markets. Record job growth, green investments, a manufacturing revival, record levels of energy production (oil, gas and other) and an infrastructure program the likes of which the United States will likely not see for another 50 years (all you have to do is go for a drive to see the massive rebuilding that is happening). All while standing up for allies, not serving up random nations on a platter to malign actors and restoring the standing of the US in the international community.
By all accounts, particularly in light of the hand he was dealt, Joe Biden has been a massive success as president.
Except he’s not running. It’s Kamala. And Trump. And the partisanship hasn’t died. It’s only gotten louder, meaner and, dare I say it, more dangerous.
A relatively young and accomplished black woman running against the oldest candidate in US history – a rich white guy. The future against the past. America against itself.
Trump of course would say “Only I can fix it”. Umm, no. He can’t. No one can.
As we enter the home stretch of the Trump experiment, I’ve witnessed my second favourite country, a place where I have invested hard-earned money to plant down potential retirement roots, descend into a partisan divide so severe that I question how in the world it can be bridged. And when this kind of thing happens, it is impossible not to point your finger to the top, in fact that is what its leaders traditionally do. Yet when the finger got pointed, there was no one there willing to accept responsibility – instead it was deflection and good people on both sides, quid pro quos and impeachment, sycophants and Rudy Giuliani, childish insults and Kabuki theatre.
In most elections, we like to ask the question about whether people are better off now than they were four years ago. This is how you challenge incumbents. Ironically, with Harris leading the ticket, there really isn’t an incumbent. And as a former president, Trump is also a bit of an incumbent.
It’s a weird election.
Kamala is the Vice-President. She has to wear Joe’s failures if she wants to take credit for his successes. But the Vice-Presidency is widely regarded as the most useless non-job in government. Until it isn’t. She is allowed to stake out her own positions and set her own agenda. Even if she didn’t have to go through a tough primary.
Trump has to be held to account for what happened the last time he was president and actually be able to articulate what he would do differently. And yes, there was a pandemic, but that was his last year. Many Americans are probably blissfully unaware that the pandemic glossed over the fact that the US was headed into a recession at the beginning of 2020 – that was on Donald’s watch.
I’m not even prepared to, at this moment, set about arguing that Donald of 2024 is severely diminished compared to the Donald of 2016. That’s because there should be absolutely no argument on that point. If you don’t see it, you are delusional and can’t be helped.
So, are people better off than they were four years ago? Of course they are. Not everyone, but a vast majority. Skip the pandemic – are people better off than they were five years ago? Yes. Were people better off in 2019 than they were in 2016? Yes again.
So this backward looking thing? It’s dumb.
People should be asking – what do you have in store for me next if I elect you.
So let’s take a look at policy then.
Sorry, I digress. Need. To. Be. Objective.
Out of curiosity, I’ve actually looked at the various policy platforms and read up. Go figure. On pretty much every measurable standard, the Harris plan is better, more specific and more fully thought out than the Trump approach of “trust me”, “windmills cause cancer”, “Elon’s a swell guy” and “electrocution death is better than shark death”.
Don’t believe me?
On the economy, there is no Trump plan to, well, do anything. His biggest policy proposal is the random use of tariffs to wage economic warfare against, well, every country the United States trades with and to implement yet another tax cut. Every economist and business leader asked about this agrees that it is terrible policy, will raise costs for every American, will invite retaliatory trade measures and has a high likelihood of pushing the US into a recession. Great plan Don.
The Harris plan proposes the continued pursuit of stimulative investment in energy transition, infrastructure and the new economy. Targeted investments and tax breaks for small business. It’s small ball, policy wonk stuff. No catchy headlines, just measures to stimulate and continue to grow the economy. Even conservative Wall Street acknowledges it is a better approach.
On energy, it’s hard to say what each policy really is. Kamala has now said she isn’t against fracking and was part of a government that saw oil and gas production reach record highs, as well as facilitating massive investment in renewable energy which last time I checked was still energy. Trump is campaigning on the over the hill “drill baby drill” mantra which in the current energy environment is meaningless. He is also clearly anti-renewables – mainly the windmills that he claims kill birds and whales.
On the environment and climate change, Harris comes out ahead, if only by virtue of actually believing in paying attention to both. Trump pulled out of the Paris Accords but much more damagingly he repealed dozens of EPA rules relating to air and chemical pollution and will do more of the same. But he has no policies here so I guess if you like to gamble…
Health care? Again, Canadian, so I’m biased. The US needs some form of universal health care or at least a public option. Harris’s plan is to build on the modified approach to public health care already in place – expanding access for seniors, continuing to lower drug prices and doing incremental improvement. Trump’s concept of a plan has been coming in two weeks for close to eight years, but if we go by what his surrogates are saying, the plan is to roll back health care to the pre-Obama days – you know, when it was really, really bad.
On the foreign policy front, it’s a pretty stark contrast. If you want America to be part of a global community and cooperative with its allies and respected and feared by its foes, Kamala’s your gal. If you want a United States that is relatively isolationist and interacts transactionally with other countries without regard for whether they are dictatorships, democracies or personality cults with no unifying global vision and continued sidelining and maligning of traditional allies, then give captain Donnie a call.
Trade? Both are nationalists on trade. Both will claim to stand up to China and protect American workers. Both will be a challenge for Canada. But only one indicates they will operate within the bounds of the global trading system which will restore some much-needed order and predictability to international trade. When he was president, Donald Trump’s trade wars were an unnecessary, unmitigated disaster, squandering billions of dollars for zero advantage on the trade deficit. His “plan” is to introduce universal tariffs (that will be passed on to US consumers) on any and all trading partners and hammer countries like China with “up to 200% or 500%” on, well, we’re not sure what – presumably EV’s given his new boy-toy Elon. This tariff plan is not only bonkers, it’s the idiot playbook that led directly to the Great Depression and World War 2. Just saying.
Breaking down Partisan barriers? Kamala has said she wants to be a president for all Americans and maybe even have a Republican in her cabinet. She has steadfastly refused to denigrate voters on the other side of the aisle and won’t take the bait on calling MAGA people stupid or garbage (that’s apparently what Joe is for). DJT on the other hand is becoming progressively angrier and more violent in his rhetoric towards Democrats and any opponent. He calls Kamala Low-IQ, women voters are nasty, he has threatened the “enemy within”, called for Liz Cheney to be prosecuted and just last night made a veiled threat about firing squads. He targets both Democrats and Republicans that he sees as personal threats. At any rate, if this is outreach, what can conflict possibly look like?
Who are your friends?
Kamala Harris’s advisory team and laundry list of political supporters reads like a who’s who of cultural and intellectual influence and wisdom – she is endorsed by Republicans and Democrats alike. Blacks, whites and latinos. Taylor Swift and Beyonce. Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck. Economists and The Economist. Liz Cheney and Ru Paul. Country stars and Rap stars. Local newspapers across the country (sadly some billionaire owned ones punted). Arnold Schwarzenegger. Mark Cuban. Billionaires and homeless people.
Donald Trump surrounds himself with toadies, sycophants and wannabe grifters. His most prominent supporter is Elon Musk, the richest man in the world who has some weird messianic Dr. Evil agenda that isn’t clear to anyone except himself but comes across at rallies as “nerd finally has found a crowd to worship his damaged ego”. After Elon, it’s the same crew of crazies as before. Rudy Giuliani. Power mad evangelical leaders. Hulk Hogan. Kid Rock. Tucker Carlson. Brett Favre ($77 million fraud guy and one-time folk hero QB).
Never mind the fact that his VP, JD (just dangerous) Vance was dropped in place by the a group of evil billionaires who have likely correctly calculated that there is no way a clearly mentally ill Donald Trump can complete a full term and the 25th Amendment papers have likely already been drafted, making JD president. So a vote for Donald is a vote for JD the billionaire’s puppet as president. The billionaires mind you, that aren’t even American. A future coup in plain sight. Exactly what they accused the Demoncrats of orchestrating against Joe. Projection is everything.
It’s literally bonkers.
I could go on, but this is already too long. So, time to land the plane.
Donald Trump has been polluting the American political discourse with his divisive, cult-like approach for close to a decade. As Kamala says it’s time to turn the page.
America needs a nap, not four more years of self-destructive narcissistic delusion.
It’s time for America to get off the crazy train and get back in the business of being the city on the hill.
As a global community, we are in the midst of a political and global and economic power realignment that will define generations and we need serious people who can bring people together and solve problems. Not serial grifters and reality show hosts looking to feather their own nests at the expense of everyone else around them.
Is Kamala ideal? No. No one is. But she’s young. She has a policy playbook and is obviously a decent human being. She cares about the United States and its people.
America’s second best actual and fictional president, Andrew Bradford, once said that being president is “all about character” and if that is the litmus test, then Kamala Harris easily wins the head to head.
As the internet says #ETTD – Everything Trump Touches Dies. Don’t let it be America.
I can’t vote but I’m with Kamala. Stability. Sanity. Forward focused.
And come this time next year, people will have moved on and will be saying “Trump? Don’t know that guy. Who is he? I may have seen him once. But I don’t know the guy. He was a very low-level staffer I think. Never met him.” And that will be fine.
Chat next week.
Should be fun.
Or not.
?
