Okay, I know I said I would not be writing a blog until I was back from vacation but I lied. I have one more short blog left in me that I need to get off my chest. And it involves some predictions on what may or may not happen while I am away and maybe some prognostications about the state of the world. We live in times that are far too interesting. In many ways, I wish it was a little more boring. Remember Stephen Harper? Barack Obama? BORING!!!! I miss those days.

 

Okay, here goes. The Predictometer.

 

First off, there is zero chance that Trudeau quits. We should be so lucky, but it isn’t in his DNA. He is a stubborn narcissist and doesn’t seem to believe what the polls are telling him. Oh well.

 

There is a good chance that Chrystia Freeland packs her bags and leaves. That Trudeau would allow her to twist in the wind while the Carney rumours swirl is very telling. A bit of a dick move for Canada’s first feminist prime minister with a history of stabbing female cabinet minsters in the back.

 

I also predict that other cabinet minsters will follow suit, perhaps one by one the Trudeau wedding party lackeys will exit stage right, starting with, I don’t know, Seamus O’Reagan. Wait, that already happened? The deuce you say!

 

Alrighty then, maybe it is time to move on to US politics, always an interesting proposition.

 

Much has been made recently about Joe Biden’s advancing years and apparently declining mental capacity and fitness. And look, I love Grandpa Joe. He has been a consequential and effective president. But it should be clear to even the most brainwashed fan that there is zero chance he will be able to serve out another four year term. It is equally obvious that he isn’t resonating with the general public as he did when he was Sleepy Joe rescuing America from the nut-fuckery of Trump’s four years. Now he’s just Sleepy Joe and his energy level is being reflected back at him by the electorate. The enthusiasm just ain’t there.

 

Joe – don’t be RBG. Don’t be Dianne Feinstein. Don’t be Michael Jordan with the Wizards. Don’t be Justin Freaking Trudeau. It sucks, but knowing when to leave matters to your legacy.

 

The debate performance locked it in – the US election is a popularity contest at the margin and decisions are made for the stupidest of reasons. No one cares about policy, they care about who seems to have the energy to be president. The post debate interviews and press conferences weren’t enough. Trust Nancy. Smartest politician (and inside investor!) of the past 40 years. Gotta move on.

 

Just last week, all anyone could talk about was replacing Joe Biden and getting him to step down.

 

Then on Saturday, some mentally unstable 20 year-old RE-PUB-LI-CAN Q-Anon freak managed to fool the vaunted Secret Service and came within an inch of assassinating Donald Trump – truly scary stuff. And for a solid 72 hours that was all that anyone could talk about (except his political affiliation). But now that has gone from the news cycle and we are back to the replace Biden drumbeat – I guess a near-death experience is only news if the media is doing the digging?

 

At any rate, we just had the Republican National Convention where we got to meet the new Mike Pence – Trump’s VP punching and hanging bag – the sucker known as JD Vance – a politician as flexible and hypocritically craven as you will ever meet, engineered, created, bought and paid for in the Venture Capital lab of Peter Thiel. Qualifications? Morally flexible, a flattering courtier and he has a beard, which I guess makes him look serious, if not a little psycho.

 

Then we got a shambolic 90-minute acceptance speech from Donald Trump that was about as meandering and pointless as, well, I guess a 90 minute Donald Trump speech. The media tried to spin it as a kinder, gentler Trump, but it was nothing more than a low energy greatest hits rehash. It was boring.

 

Where am I going with this and where is the prediction?

 

Well, here it is.

 

It is time for the Dems to get their mojo back and present themselves as something neither party seems to be – high energy and reflective of society.

 

And how will they do that you might ask?

 

Simple.

 

Some time while I’m away, perhaps as soon as Monday, Joe Biden is going to step down from his role as President, citing health concerns (seems convenient that he has COVID again, doesn’t it?).

 

This means that Kamala Harris will become president and will get a valuable four months of experience in the role and be the defacto nominee for the upcoming election.

 

Next, the party will nominate and swear-in the immensely popular Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as vice-president.

 

This will lock in the ticket ahead of the Democratic convention in September in Chicago.

 

The juice that this will inject into the Democratic campaign will be substantial and electric and the contrasts between the two campaigns will be stark, particularly on the issues of reproductive and civil rights.

 

With one selfless act, Joe Biden will have flipped the script on the election if not flip the entire table.

 

This young, smart, capable, biracial ticket will have instant appeal across a broad cross-section of undecideds and wafflers. A black, tough on crime former prosecutor alongside the slightly younger female governor of a state that has been the site of a Biden-led manufacturing renaissance. Boom. The Trump campaign has nothing to counter it.

 

Why Witmer instead of any of the other names being floated?

 

She’s the highly popular governor of mid-west swing state that the Dems absolutely need to win. She’s overseen a manufacturing turnaround that is the envy of other states. And she knows how to win and avoid being kidnapped.

 

Other names are possible but wouldn’t be as transcendant. Some suggest Pete Buttigieg, but I don’t think the US is ready for a black female president and a gay nerd as vice president. Hakeem Jeffries has been floated as well but he is a transformational leader in the house and needs to stay there to be Speaker. JB Pritzker is an unknown and the rest are even more unknown. Gavin Newsom is compelling but flawed with questionable judgement – he was after all married to Kimberly Guilfoyle who is DJT Jr’s partner.

 

Doing this move now completely neutralizes and erases the GOP campaign strategy of pounding on Joe Biden’s age and obvious frailty and will seize and control the airwaves from the day it happens through the convention and on to election day.

 

Crazy? Like a fox! It’s a clear-cut winner. Someone at the DNC needs to cut me a cheque. Forthwith.

 

 

A couple of other predictions for you.

 

• The price of oil will take a beating sometime while I’m away, because I won’t be able to trade.

 

• The price of natural gas will continue to disappoint.

 

• Danielle Smith will do something crazy.

 

• The CPC will extend their lead over the Liberals.

 

• Taiwan is safe for the next few weeks.

 

• Elon Musk and the South African billionaire takeover of the United States will fail

 

• I will have fun on vacation.

 

See y’all in a few weeks.

 

May we all live in uninteresting times.