This leaders’ debate is excruciating, so I wrote a blog and borrowed some old stuff. To spruce it up I decided to ask Elon and Grok to translate it into Pirate. Enjoy.
Cap’n’s Log, April 18, 2024
Hoist the colors, me hearties! ‘Tis time to swab the deck and chart the stormy seas o’ current events plaguin’ Canada and the world beyond. Take a gander at the tariffs, the stock runs, the plunder gained, the treasures lost, and the cursed losses aplenty.
This trade war’s shown us Canucks we’ve got some weighty choices to make ‘bout our course ahead. Fear not, for I’ll be yer trusty navigator, publishin’ a blow-by-blow tale o’ the election, the candidates, their platforms, the shiny gold, the bilge rats, and the downright scurvy.
When, ye ask? Next week, arr!
What in Davy Jones’ locker?! Aye, next week, just afore the election. ‘Tis me way, mates. I ain’t spillin’ the rum eleven days early just ‘cause ye’re thirsty now. If ye know me, ye know where me loyalties lie. In this election—more about change than swabbin’ a deck is about a new ship—I’m fixed on a few key matters.
In me years o’ votin’, I’ve learned one truth: me vote matters, but it rarely tips the scales. Castin’ yer lot and raisin’ yer voice keeps ye from electin’ a scoundrel who’d rather fire cannons at yer neighbor and ol’ mate.
Votin’ be the one true act o’ citizenship, short o’ runnin’ for cap’n yerself.
I’ve sifted through the wheat and the chaff, the bilge and the blarney, the yin and the yang, the Boris and the Natasha, the Trump and the Biden. Me mind’s made up.
But hold fast, mates—wait ‘til next week.
After I watch the debate when I drop anchor from me daily toil. What’s that? It was at 7 pm Eastern Time? 5 pm in Alberta? 4 pm out West? While folks are still sailin’ home? Blimey! This be why the West holds a grudge ‘gainst Eastern and Central Canada. One English debate, timed to vex a third o’ the crew! Compare that to the French debate, shifted so folks could cheer the Canadiens makin’ the playoffs (with 6 points less than the Calgary Flames, who missed the cut, mind ye). Enough o’ that squall.
For now, we’ve got bigger fish to fry here in the land o’ oil and gas: commodity prices.
They’ve been a right mess, tossed about like a ship in a maelstrom. Mostly ‘cause o’ the trade storm stirred by that barnacle-crusted Donald Trump, but also them sneaky devils at OPEC+++++ floodin’ the market with barrels.
What do I mean? The market’s bracin’ for a recession, sinkin’ prices to the depths. Then them Saudi-led scallywags at OPEC dumped more oil, drivin’ prices lower still. Add in tariff madness, Chinese counterstrikes, and cries o’ “drill, baby, drill,” and the outlook for oil—bright as a lighthouse just 30 days ago—now looks shakier than a lubber in a storm.
Or does it?
Prices, for what they’re worth, seem to have steadied. Be $50 the new $70? Or $70 the new $50? Likely. Or maybe the market’s whisperin’ this oil’s oversold, and if no one can profit at $60, production’ll collapse, bringin’ mass unemployment, chaos in the Permian, and—mark me words—higher prices in time.
With gold’s run stretchin’ thin as a frayed rope, when oil prices dip, ‘tis time to eye the market and decide if it’s ripe for plunder.
Plus, if election promises hold water, we’ll soon have ten new pipelines crisscrossin’ Canada.
Trouble is, oil investin’s been so out o’ favor, many o’ us have forgotten how to play the game. ‘Twas easier to ride the waves o’ Nvidia, Bitcoin, Apple, and Tesla (admit it, ye own ‘em) ‘til tariffs hit. Then they were tough to hold. ‘Til exemptions sparked a rally. ‘Til extra-crunchy tariffs sank ‘em again.
The long and short o’ it, mates, is the average stock trader’s just been schooled in the soul-crushin’ futility o’ oil and gas.
Yet the siren’s call remains. It feels like time to buy.
So, rather than bore ye with how neither Carney (who’d rather keelhaul oil and gas and make us all walk the plank) nor Poilievre (who swears he loves all things oily, though I’m skeptical as a shark) can deliver their grand “Canada First” nation-buildin’ schemes, I’ll share the closely guarded Stormont’s Pirate Code for Investin’ in Energy.
Gather ‘round, mates, and prick yer ears.
First, know this: investin’ in oil and gas ain’t Bitcoin. ‘Tis no Robin Hood hype or pump-and-dump schemes with bankrupt shells. No sky-high P/Es or mad growth curves propped up by nothin’ but hot air.
Nay, this be a real market for companies with real goods, varied wares, and—what’s that called?—cash flow.
But first, some lore from the deep.
Oil and gas be yer grandsire’s trade. Old as the seas, not tech for tech’s sake. ‘Tis applied know-how to pull nasty stuff from the earth’s belly, fuelin’ the economy we once held dear.
Oil and gas be so vital, it’s rarely tariffed—‘cept in Canada, where we supply 75% o’ the oil that keeps the U.S. afloat. Then we’re fair game, ‘cause Trump had no love for Trudeau. But that bilge rat’s gone now.
In oil and gas investin’, there be rules to heed, truisms to trade by. Ye’ll need to do yer homework and have patience—barrels o’ it. Lucky for ye, I’m here to chart the course. I’ll lay out a guide for the greenest landlubber with a discount brokerage or the saltiest webstock warrior to lose (or make!) a fortune in energy.
Heed me words, and do as I say, not as I do. ‘Tis the way o’ the energy seas. Pick a stock, any stock. Ye’ll see.
The Pirate Code o’ Energy Investin’
Rule #1 – Don’t Day-Trade Energy Stocks
Aye, they can surge like a rogue wave, but these stocks don’t ride momentum. Intra-day shifts are scarce. The day’s course is set when the market opens, tied to the commodity’s price. Oil up, stock up. Gas down, stock down. Simple as that. The long-term tide o’ oil and gas prices drives growth, not fleeting tweets like Tesla’s.
Rule #2 – Don’t Buy and Hold
This be the flip side o’ day-tradin’. Energy stocks ain’t for “set it and forget it” like a rotisserie. Oil and gas be a cyclical beast, and the cycle’ll break yer spirit regular-like. Prices ebb and flow on a seven-year cycle, though recent tides run shorter. Buy at the trough, forget it, and ye might see it double or triple, only to sink back to where ye started. I studied 30 oil and gas stocks over seven years—total return? Zero. Genius! Sure, big names like Suncor and CNRL belong in any fleet, but they dance with the commodity. Watch for sharp shifts—1% or 2% be nothin’, but 10%? Cut and run.
Rule #3 – Fundamentals Be Yer Compass
Unlike tech stocks chasin’ fairy-tale revenues, what an energy crew does today matters. Key fundamentals include:
Reserve Replacement:
Oil’s a finite hoard. To keep the gold flowin’, ye must replace what’s piped out. Once, the market prized crews spendin’ big to grow reserves. Now it’s about steady cash flow, payin’ debts, buyin’ shares, and dividends. But ye still need reserves to stay afloat. If a crew ain’t spendin’ to replace, steer clear.
Findin’ Costs:
How much to replace production? Low costs, like oilsands, be golden. High costs? Trouble.
Decline Rates:
How fast be production fadin’? Fast declines mean more spendin’ to replace, raisin’ costs. Oilsands hold steady; Texas light oil fades quick.
Breakeven Cost:
What commodity price keeps the ship afloat? Lower’s better, but calculations vary—mind the fine print.
Cash Flow:
The ultimate treasure. After all costs—land, drillin’, salaries, debts, taxes—does the crew generate Free Cash Flow to pay ye and the banks? The crew with the most wins.
Rule #4 – Cap’ns Matter
A good cap’n’s worth their weight in doubloons, ‘specially in midcap or speculative waters. Have they sailed these seas before? Created riches for investors? If their name rhymes with Rose or they own a slice o’ the Calgary Flames, I’m in. Good cap’ns breed success. Buy when they buy, sell when they sell.
Rule #5 – Natural Gas Be a Siren’s Curse
This be gospel ‘til it ain’t. Pricin’, weather, pipelines, LNG delays, shale booms, methane rules—natural gas investin’s been a zero-sum game since 2008. Every time ye think it’s turnin’ ‘round, it slaps ye like a wet fish. Advice? Avoid pure gas crews. Bet on shippers and processors who profit from cheap feedstock. That’s where the gold lies—‘til it don’t. Gas always disappoints.
Rule #6 – When in Doubt, Sail with the Big Ships
I used to chase mid-size crews, leavin’ me with a fleet o’ juniors and micro-caps. Better to go big. Big crews are big for a reason. If ye neglect yer investments for a week or two, ye might still have somethin’ left.
Rule #7 – Diversify Yer Hold
Don’t bet on one trick pony unless it’s painted. Go up, mid, or downstream. Oil, gas, or both. Pipelines, crude, refined, petrochemicals—even crews dabblin’ in wind or solar. Don’t pile all yer gold in one chest, ‘specially not gas. Refiners profit when explorers don’t, and shippers always make a coin—just less. No crew does all three. “Green” crews? Lyin’. Net zero’s just sleight o’ hand. Integrated crews be stabler but grow slower. Gas? Disappoints.
Rule #8 – Watch the Tide, Not the Wave
Oil and gas prices shift like the wind, tradin’ 24/7. They’ll drive ye mad if ye track ‘em too close. Either follow every ripple and lose yer mind, or pick a solid crew that thrives in risin’ tides and watch the direction, not the level. Ignore gas prices—they’ll break yer heart.
Rule #9 – The Rule o’ Murray
If a crew’s got a Murray, it’s likely a fair bet. Think Murray Mullen o’ Mullen Transportation or Murray Edwards, whose hand steers services, production, and hockey. Mullen Transport, Ensign Energy Services, Canadian Natural Resources—ye could do worse. The Flames nearly made the playoffs this year, and with Murray buildin’ a new rink, next year’ll be better. Don’t bet ‘gainst Murray. No Murray’s tied to gas.
Rule #10 – Alberta Be a Treasure Isle
I’ve said it afore, but Alberta shines bright. Top producers, low costs, fair rules, new pipelines, diverse crews, at least two Murrays, and some o’ North America’s biggest and boldest cap’ns. Solid fundamentals, a touch o’ green, and more gas than we know what to do with to keep us humble. Our best plays are too small to day-trade. We’re nigh the perfect port for investin’.
What’re ye waitin’ for, mates? Hoist the sails and claim yer share o’ the plunder!
