Wow – what a century the last week has been, eh? I tell ya, it warms my heart to put all that work into my annual Fearless Forecast only to have it blown to pieces in the blink of an eye. I did not see the Lions losing to that Washington team, especially not in such spectacular fashion. Nor did I think that Vivek would be punted out of the White House inner circle before the inauguration, but here we are. As for the rest of my missives and takes and predictions? Only time will tell.

 

One of the themes of my forecast as you know (we all read each of the 6000 some odd words right?) was tariffs and how they were going to dominate the conversation for the year and there they were, front and centre all during the week. Maybe too much, but what do I know.

 

Let me tell you a little secret about tariffs. They are dumb. And they make people do dumb things. Like charge their own tariffs. So the other party needs to add more tariffs, prompting the other party to implement more tariffs. See where I am going with this?

 

Here in Canada, we have spent the better part of the last month getting ourselves into a self-serving nationalistic lather about tariffs coming at us from the new Trump Administration. We have been subjected to “Team Canada” photo-op jingoism, sober and condescending lectures from Liberal Party supporting journalists, columnists, podcastists and apologists. Justin Trudeau himself has smugly accused Danielle Smith of being in cahoots with Trump while the aforementioned opinion-makers howl about her being a traitor to “Canada” and in bed with the fossil fuel industry.

 

Look, I wrote about this last week, but it bears repeating. Danielle Smith is the premier of Alberta. She is just as unhappy about tariffs as any premier – likely more so given how trade-exposed our economy is. She is not against retaliatory tariffs. Never said she was. What she is opposed to are export taxes or cutbacks in exports of energy. Why? Because they are dumb. Remember when I said tariffs make people do dumb things? Economic suicide, in the form of export taxes, is a dumb thing. Cutting energy exports to your largest and by and large only trading partner without having IMPLEMENTED actions to solve the problems associated with doing that is moronic. Energy is security. Remove the security of supply and you will never get it back. Dumb.

 

So, I completely agree with Danielle Smith’s position here. I could go into more detail, but I don’t need to. Trevor Tombe, an Economics Professor at the University of Calgary wrote an exceptional article about this for The Hub. The link is here. ARTICLE

 

I would also note that not only is Danielle Smith being called a traitor for not wanting to cripple her province’s biggest industry and provincial/federal cash cow, she is also being mocked for travelling to Washington DC for the inauguration to plead her case with any government official who would give her an audience. The comments ran the gamut from condescending and arrogant. Excuse me? Who does she think she is? That’s the Federal government’s job? What was she thinking? The rube from Alberta going to the Big House and thinking it might actually do something. Time to put away the pretty gowns and let the really important people do the work.

 

Of course, the people slagging her are the very same keyboard warriors who are all up in arms with their fake bravado over tariffs and thinking that we need to go toe to toe with the Americans – all without having even so much of a cell of skin in the game.

 

What’s that? Yes absolutely. Again, I am completely supportive of Danielle Smith’s foray into tariff diplomacy. My question to all the nay-sayers – why aren’t you? And where WAS the federal government when this inauguration week stuff was happening? And BTW – she wasn’t the only one down there – Anthony Furey from Newfoundland and Labrador was there taking selfies too, some of them with Danielle Smith! No one mocked him. Why is that? I didn’t see him roasted on X. I guess because he is toing the “Team Canada” party line he got a pass. Can’t be because he isn’t from Alberta – although to be honest, those Newfies are pretty cool after all, what with kissing fish and hydrogen projects that don’t have a hope of being completed, plus I don’t see any Broadway Musicals about the oilsands.

 

Where am I going with this? Nowhere really, just venting. Because I think we may be going about this tariff thing all wrong.

 

The prevailing thought lines are that Trump’s a bully so we have to stand up to him – it’s the only thing that works! Yeah, maybe in elementary school or in movies.

 

But this is real life and we are dealing with a counter-party who is unpredictable, mercurial, merciless and grudge carrying. When he says “I have nothing against the Canadian people” you can bet your ass he has something against certain Canadian persons. He is going to exact his pound of flesh. We need a better strategy.

 

We aren’t going to win a tariff war. No one is. Why do we feel it is imperative to hurt ourselves in the process? Trudeau keeps popping up in news conferences acting all puffy and tough and saying we need to match potential tariffs “dollar for dollar”. This means if our products are subject to $150 billion in tariffs, then we need to charge equivalent tariffs on American goods coming our way by an equal amount. That means that we will have added $150 billion in extra cost onto an already reeling consumer and a country and economy that many believe has been in a recession in all but technical definition for months. All of this implemented by a prime minister who has prorogued parliament and doesn’t have a legitimately functioning government during what they are calling an existential crisis. A prime minster who has resigned and won’t be running again to be an MP for a party that is currently running a leadership race with basically two candidates – one of whom is an insider and advisor to Trudeau masquerading as an everyman outsider and the other is the 9-year confidante of the PM who blew him up and is running away from every Trudeau policy she championed (and in many cases implemented) as his number 2. A choice between two insiders who are going to be picked by LPC members. Our next PM therefore is going to be hand selected by the very party that is trailing by 20% in the polls. With no election in sight to allow CANADIANS to pick who they want as their MANDATED representative in this tariff moment. How existential do they really think this crisis is when all they can think about is the continuation of their own existence as the natural governing party of Canada. Who is actually betraying Canada and the trust of Canadians? I would argue it sure as shit isn’t Danielle Smith.

 

It’s a trainwreck.

 

And then we’ll have election, I guess eventually. Sometime after Ontario’s.

 

It was going to be a Carbon Tax election. I say make it a Tariff election. But let’s have it already. We don’t need to wait any longer. Cynical moves by the Liberal Party notwithstanding, Parliament needs to get back to work. All this time that is passing benefits no one except Donald Trump.

 

Let a newly ELECTED Prime Minister take the reins on this. At least they will have a mandate.

 

This also plays into my preferred approach to the Trump tariffs. Let the dumb tariffs prove they are dumb.

 

Let the American consumer feel the effects of rising costs and a resurgence of inflation with these tariffs. Let it bite.

 

Get out on the US news shows and loudly say, “we aren’t going to take any retaliatory action just yet, we know that these tariffs will raise the cost of everything, and we don’t want to pile on… even though we can in a lot of different ways.” But please, don’t telegraph what we may or may not do. That’s also dumb.

 

Go on Fox news and talk about how Canada and the United States have been best friends and allies since before McKinley was President. How we have bled alongside Americans in war. How we support them in peacetime. How an economically strong Canada is critical to the safety and security of the Untied States. Talk about how the oil and gas industry is critical for the United States achieving its energy independence.

 

Tell them how without Canada they wouldn’t have Nickelback. Hmm, maybe not that.

 

But you get my point, right? Get the people on our side. Let them know that these policies are hurting them.

 

Keep up with the backchannel diplomacy. Find the parties that Trump will occasionally listen to. Get your talking heads on the media he watches.

 

Don’t lead with here is our tit for tat retaliation – we know what we can do. Keep the powder dry and don’t overreact. Say we are studying a response. It might come or it might not. Maybe April 1. Who knows.

 

Chaos. Uncertainty.

 

Play the game.

 

We are the minnow against the whale, we are likely only going to get one shot at this so it needs to be perfectly timed. Like a Scott Stevens open-ice hit and elbow to the head.

 

Hit ‘em when they least expect it and in ways no one will see coming. Remember last week I said put tariffs on all the billionaires attending the inauguration? Do it. But suddenly. On a Tuesday night in May. Send it by fax to the White House.

 

Stop panicking.

 

Oh, and stop calling people traitors. This just plays into his strategy, such as it is.

 

And when the time is right and the political heat has died down, get to work on what this is really all about.

 

Trump wants to renegotiate the USMCA on more favourable terms to the United States.

 

Be ready to deal on the things the Americans care about. Supply management, especially dairy. Telecoms. Foreign ownership rules (specifically on airlines and financial institutions). Canada’s oligopolies and sacred cows are also major trade irritants. Digital services, media and AI. Energy. Maybe even water.

 

Spend money on the border and the military. Not because Donald Trump wants it, but because it’s the right thing to do.

 

And in the meantime, as it regards building out our economy and insulating ourselves and our absolutely vital industries from the whims of a president whose fiscal leanings are stuck in the mercantilist late 1800’s?

 

All the projects. All the time.

 

That is all.