Crude Observations

Alright folks, I’m mad as hell this week and I just can’t take it anymore. No, really, I’m hot under the collar mad. So mad my head is about to explode. I am mad and aggrieved and can’t believe all these things are happening to me, caused by forces outside of my control and for reasons I don’t understand. I’m so mad in fact that you could call me outraged, triggered, enraged, berserk, fuming, livid, beside myself, positively fuming… You get the picture.   What is making me so mad you may ask? I DON’T […]

As I sat ruminating on what exactly this week’s blog was going to be about I did a little soul-searching about the last few months, which have, admittedly and of necessity, been consumed by all things politic all the time, culminating in a post election free for all and Halloween jaunt. But it’s over now, I think. The interesting thing about elections and politics is that you can write endless articles about them and all the attendant issues and then after the election you find yourself writing even more about the results of the election […]

Wow, is it November 1st already? Where has 2019 gone, it seems like only 10 months ago were celebrating New Years! At any rate, here we are, the day after Halloween, unless you are in Quebec, in which case it is Halloween. Or Chicago, where it’s the day before Halloween. Confused? Yeah, so am I. Blame the fossil fuel industry and climate change. On the other hand, we had snow yesterday morning and our typically frigid Trick or Treat fest, with the only timing issues being whether we started the journey at 6 PM or […]

Well folks, there you have it. Canada has held a federal election and the results are in. An official Justin Trudeau led Liberal minority government. I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. And with this election, Canada has now officially joined the goat rodeo that seems to be sweeping across liberal democracies around the world, with the highlight being crazed partisan and regional rivalries.   Whether it’s Brexit nonsense in the United Kingdom, the usual multi-party gong show that is Italy or the swamp and spirit draining fiasco that […]

  So if last week was a time for giving thanks, this week is shaping up to be something completely different.  That’s right. It’s Debbie-downer time, otherwise known as time for my bold and completely detached from reality Canadian election prediction.   That’s right. The Canadian federal election campaign is finally coming to an end and, as the self-proclaimed “most important election in history”, it deserves a fitting send off. Given that, I think we can all agree that there is nothing more fitting than this esteemed blog and blogger passing judgment on the campaign […]

Here I sit on yet another Friday, albeit quite a bit later than I normally do to write this missive but there are extenuating circumstances – I’m looking at you Air Canada and YYC airport ground crews! So yes, it is late (kind of deliberately so actually, as you will see later) and for that I am mildly apologetic, but everything worked out in the end and Air Canada and a very chatty and surprisingly well-informed cab ride later we are safely ensconced in a Phoenix cocoon and I am soon out the door to […]

Wow – three quarters of the way through the year and there is still a full three months to go. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am about ready to pull the pin on 2019 and start 2020 right away, if only to get away from this gad-awful Canadian election and the ongoing Trump-impeachment circus.   And as we all know, quarter end is when I look back at my Fearless (Foolish?) Forecast and grade myself on the various qualitative and quantitative calls I made. I haven’t yet looked at my […]

Sorry for the late blog this week, I was out participating in a day of action for the environment, otherwise known as the Global Climate Strike. Okay, you got me, no I wasn’t. I was actually out of town briefly to celebrate my 20th wedding anniversary.  Doesn’t mean I wasn’t thinking about the environment though – or climate, as I prepare for the annual Alberta September Snowmageddon (ASS) this weekend with up to 50 cm of snow expected in some parts of Southern Alberta over the weekend.   You see, during the drive out and […]

Well I sure blew the timing on that one, didn’t I.   If only I had waited a week for my election cheat sheet I would have so much… umm… more… to say. As the expression goes, a week is a lifetime in politics, although this past week has been more like 1001 Arabian nights.   But what do I really want to say? Do I actually want to wade into the latest iteration of the chaotic fever swamp that is Canadian politics? Is it really that important to discuss what I understand to be […]

Well it sure has been a busy week here in Albertaland and Canada. It seems that it has been a week full of launches, with new initiatives popping up all over the place, previously announced undertakings finally taking shape and getting underway and, finally, inevitabilities finally being unleashed.   What do I mean by all this? Simple. In Alberta we had the official launch of the House Committee on Unalbertan Activities which is the inquisition into foreign funds messing around with our livelihood, closely followed up by the UCP announcing an official inquisition into the […]

Does anyone remember last August 30th? I sure do. That was the day that the Federal Court of Appeal (FCA) came down with their judgement that the Federal Government had failed in its duty to consult with Indigenous communities on the Trans Mountain Expansion project and that the NEB and the Cabinet had inappropriately not considered the environmental impact of shipping related to the project nor its impact on the Southern Resident Killer whales.   Remember now? Remember how mad everyone was that that had happened? That we had somehow checked every box there was […]

Ah Labour Day. That annual celebration of the righteousness of the downtrodden worker, the brave collectives, putting it all on the line day after day in order to enrich the greedy capitalist fat cats who live for exploiting the masses.   And which union am I talking about most specifically here? Why none other than the NFLPA (NFL Players Association) and their hardworking members as they head into what is the 100th season of NFL football.   As most of you know, I am a huge NFL fan. And earlier this month I promised an […]

Can you hear that sound? It’s the sound of a giant sigh of relief. It’s also the sound of a ceremonial shovel in the ground courtesy of the Federal government as opposed to the knife in the back that we seem to repeatedly get here in oilpatchland.   Yes, after more than a billion years of litigation, delays, cancellations, purchases, sales, false starts, protests, threats, deadlines, judges, lawyers, mobilizations, demobilizations, stays, rallies, the TransMountain Pipeline Expansion, otherwise known as the Pierre Elliott Trudeau SNC Memorial Pipeline is under way and has received the green light […]

So here I am, back in the office for a spell and still ruminating on my epic Vegas trip. Did I mention I made $124.50 off my $20 investment in a slot machine? That’s a 600% return. I have never had a six-bagger in the stock market, unless you are talking about an investment that is now worth 1/6th what I paid for it and now I am stuck with a dog in my portfolio that I have to hold for the next decade as it slowly climbs back to some reasonable approximation of what […]

As promised, this week’s blog is going to continue the midsummer tradition of being shorter than normal, because for every writer like me who needs a vacation from blogs there is an equally deserving reader who needs a vacation from my blather.   As luck would have it, I am in Las Vegas this week doing a bit of a family thing. It’s a great trip and we are doing many fun things but my ability to channel my inner Hunter S. Thomson and find the down and dirty of the Strip both physically and […]

Well good morning everyone. I hope that August is treating you well. This is going to be the first of two abbreviated blogs because I am currently on summer vacation with my family and they are scowling at me as I write.   Some of you will no doubt be wondering why you are receiving not only an abbreviated blog, but also a tardy one. Laziness is most likely your first reaction and in that you would be partially correct. I say partially because one of the reasons it’s late is that I recently returned […]

Alright. Well then. Ahem. I guess last week’s blog was deemed by some to be a bit, shall we say, unsettling given the political conclusions, forecasts, predictions that I laid out. I think it’s fair to say that the audience this blog reaches is diverse and politically astute. Many were in agreement with the conclusions I made, many were not. Some were distressed to see it in writing, especially during summer vacation.   So if I upset anyone, I apologize. That wasn’t (entirely) my intent. It was more of a wake-up call.  A “folks, this […]

Wow, midsummer already. Where does the time go when you are having so much fun? Although to be truthful, with the rainy July we have been having it really doesn’t seem too summery to me yet. Never mind the fact that vacation time is still weeks away and I have so far been work slave, which is actually a good thing – money and all, but still, patios need some love as well.   One of the hallmarks of this period for me is the true funk I fall into as a blogger. This isn’t […]

One of the both great and (occasionally) annoying things about living and working in Calgary is navigating the annual all-consuming celebration of fun and cowboy hats that is the Calgary Stampede. Whether it’s surviving double-deep-fried scorpions coated in Oreo batter, boiled corn rolled in ground-up spicy Cheetos, mainlining mini-donuts or running the gauntlet of corporate gatherings, Stampede is a unique event in our city.   How unique? Well it’s got its own verb and language – that’s pretty unique.   “Have you been stampeding yet?”  “Sure have, we were at the chucks the other day […]

Is it the end of Q2 already? All I can say is thank god! It has been a long one what with elections and pipelines and sanctions and all things Trump. And it is that blessed time of year here in Calgary called Stampede and if you are wondering why this blog is a day late and a dollar short, you can blame my buddy Kim and his First Friday party which happened to coincide with my usual blog posting time. Beer, party, blog. Blog, party, beer.  Party, beer, blog. Pretty easy call actually. I […]

It’s time for my annual celebration of all things canucklehead, what with Canada’s National Holiday, the NHL season opener, just around the corner. What’s that? Oh, oops, sorry. What with Canada Day, just around the corner. Canada Day being the day that we discovered we could appropriate the practice developed by first nations of tapping into the sweet spring sap of maple trees and making a syrup out of it, or, put another way, drinking tree blood. What? Wrong again? Egads. OK. One last try. Canada Day, the day our nation was founded, after  24 […]

Where does the time go? Why it seems like just last week everyone was all in a lather about US production being up another 100,000 barrels and storage in Cushing being up 2 million barrels or some such number with the net result being that the world was awash in oil and we were in an age of peaceful plenty. Then some guy in Iran goes and drops a US drone into the strait of Hormuz and reality hits home. Yeah, I guess that there oil supply chain can get pretty dicey at times what […]

So here we are, June 14th which should be a happy day for a number of reasons yet we are all wondering just what the heck is going on. I went away last week and the world seemed relatively stable, then it all went to hell in a handbasket. I mean seriously, if you weren’t somehow exposed to volatility and uncertainty in your day to day life this past week, then I suspect you weren’t paying attention. If it wasn’t someone pretending to be Iran attacking some oil tankers it was the Toronto Raptors upsetting […]

This is one of those abbreviated blog posts because I find myself travelling this week, which is unusual. Even more unusual is that I am travelling with my family somewhere cool instead of acting as the glorified bus driver that I seem to be most days or doing work travel. And, I’m leaving my laptop where it belongs – at the office.   The benefit of the abbreviated blog post is that I can get away with just one subject. And that subject is one that is near and dear to my heart, specifically the […]

Wow, just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water, along comes Donald J. Trump with another broadside to the global economy, this time in the form of another set of reckless tariffs on an ally and major trading partner. It was hard to miss, but if you did, the gist is that as of June 10th, Mexico will be slapped with monthly increasing tariffs on all exports, starting at 5% and ending at… who knows. These tariffs will remain in place until Mexico takes steps to end the passage of […]

You know how every once in a while you get this sudden wave of inspiration flowing over you and you feel that you can do no wrong and are pretty much on top of the world? I get that every once in while working on this blog and the words just flow from my brain to my hands to my non touch-typing trained (sorry ma!) carpal tunnel wracked index fingers onto the blank slate word document and create something without peer. A true creative transfer that leaves the writer with a sense of smug satisfaction. […]

Well, that was interesting. Clearly, judging by the overwhelming feedback, I hit a home run with last week’s blog. The straight up re-characterization of the pipeline file as a re-imagining of one of my favourite plays (Waiting For Godot by Samuel Beckett) was, I thought, fairly spot on given the senseless navel gazing and mindless discussion that informs the pipeline debate. Senseless waiting is a legitimate theme. OK, I lied. Last week was a dud. But it made an important point we are all feeling.   It also served as an potent outlet for my […]

I believe it is well established at this moment in time that I, like many energy sector participants, am not terribly patient when it comes to infrastructure. I want my pipelines and I want them yesterday. It goes without saying that a strong regulatory approval process is required, environmental protections must be in place and proper consultations held. But it’s the waiting that kills you. And it’s not even. Why do some projects take so long and others seem to get approved in the blink of an eye?   It’s not a level playing field […]

Ever notice how sometimes there are cultural phenomena or global events that arise and transfix people for weeks at a time such that they become very much a part of the public dialogue and which allow complete strangers to find common cause or shared experience that they otherwise wouldn’t? These things can take any shape or form and run the gamut from “knowing where you were when Kennedy was shot” or 9/11 memories or, conversely, rather than some world changing event, it was a cultural phenomenon that swept the world. Like the Macarena. Or Baby […]

Welcome everyone to the end of April. The time of year when Calgary gets its annual dose of freak snowstorms and patio weather, often in the same day. That’s right, the time of year when you thought it was safe to go back outside for a run or spark a doob on a patio downtown (what? That’s not allowed? That’s stupid) some crazy weather comes along to remind you that it is still in fact winter here notwithstanding the calendar. We are officially in the end of winter doldrums.   Other signs that we are […]

Well there you have it. The election is finally over. What was 28 days of full-on flinging of mud, rage and other nasty stuff has, in typical Canadian fashion, rolled over into the smooth and peaceful transfer of power from the Rachel Notley NDP to our new set of overlords, the United Conservative Party lead by Jason Kenney.   With the election over I can finally catch up on my sleep and with the all-consuming rage messaging toned down I no longer find myself curled up in the corner hiding from the world at large. […]

This is it. The last blog before the big day. I know I have been threatening it for some time, but this is the day I have to actually make my prediction in this godforsaken Alberta election. I can’t avoid it anymore So I’m going to do that. Soon. But first, I feel I must veer off topic and tell a wee story.   This blog started about four years ago. Under oddly similar circumstances. You see, at that time, in 2015, Alberta was going through an election, the economy was under duress, the Conservatives […]

Okay, I lied. Can you forgive me? It was too easy. It was spring break, I was relaxing with my family and it was Friday. And I really didn’t want to go inside and write my blog and I refused to leave poolside because I had a freshly cracked Dos Equis XX by my side. So, I thought to myself, “Self, it’s Friday – you got nothing to write and Monday is April Fool’s and to leave that alone is a disservice to pranksters everywhere. So I did what I did. But really, theer is […]

Sorry everyone for the tardy delivery of the blog. But I have some bad (good?) news for you.   As many of you know, I have been wrestling with this for a while, but I have decided, after much contemplation and consultation with loved ones and colleagues to call an end to the blog after this week. After all, I am running out of things to talk about, what with the ills of the energy sector being solved by our Liberal Party of Canada overlords and the wise men of OPEC (+). I mean, think […]

Wow, has it been a year already? I guess it has, and here I sit in my office transfixed by the opening rounds of my favourite sports tournament of the year and contemplating the meaning of college sports. And as always, as my basketball bracket implodes and I see all my bets wither and die, I am reminded that the big dance is also happening in the energy world and, as tradition dictates, I need to do my picks.   Last year was a pretty intense energy tournament and my final match up was a […]

Good afternoon everyone, an abbreviated blog this week. Why? Because this week I am coming to you remotely. Ironically from Montreal, a city that I slagged so magnificently last week.  Where in Montreal? Well I am paying a return visit to my roots, pretty much THE root, the Montreal General Hospital where yours truly was born – many, many, many years ago. And wouldn’t you know it, just up the street from here is the Trudeau family compound, and down the street is the head office of SNC Lavalin and right in between, where I’m […]

Another week gone by and another hot mess of scandals, crises, economic malaise and assorted bad news. Unless you are Bryce Harper signing with Philadelphia for $330 million over 13 years, you likely have had a pretty challenging week. But even that isn’t good enough for the sports punditry. He should have taken a shorter deal for more money per year! Why Philadelphia! What a moron! I’m not really sure what measure of moronity the guy calling in to a sports loudmouth show at 11:35 pm on a random Tuesday is using, but he might […]

I know all of you think I am some loser who sits around all day reading technical articles about oil & gas, energy policy and energy services, while also spending way too much time on twitter debating politics from all sides of the aisle. And that armed with all that, I sally forth and spend the balance of my time holding industry and the political establishment to task – critiquing their policies and market interpretations, busting myths, spreading truths. The usual blog hero stuff.   And you what? You would all be absolutely right. In […]

Finally. At long last. Phew. A week where I can sit back, take a deep breath and then unload on a variety of different topics. It’s taken a while and as always, a number of them have been festering beneath the surface, like acid reflux, or natural gas under pressure, just needing one little ghost in the machine to let everything blow out in a torrent of rage, or words as the case may be.   Okay so maybe that’s a little melodramatic and probably raises expectations too high on the actual rantiness of what […]

Ah Valentine’s Day, I hope everyone had a good one and was able to celebrate with loved ones and scored copious amounts of chocolate, flowers, edible underwear – whatever floats your boat really.   I of course scored my favourite gift, a platter of the finest cheese, a Keto friendly baguette that I was able to enjoy with a flagon of the finest wine and the company of my own Valentine.   But enough about me. Today for some reason I feel the need to talk about the environment. Specifically the environment as it relates […]

Given my well-documented struggles with writer’s block these last few weeks, it is surprising that I haven’t taken the time to pen a missive about the unfolding events in Venezuela. Well that ends now, especially since the chattering class seem to have finally noticed what is going on in Venezuela and seem to have a passing interest in what has led to the current situation – which is about as mild a word as one can use for what is in reality a calamity.   Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider […]

Okay folks, this is it. I am officially stumped and torn this week. I don’t know what to write on. You see there are two themes rattling around in my head. First, it’s Super Bowl Weekend. My favourite chicken wing mainlining time of the year. And this year yet again we have a super-intriguing matchup. Sean McVay the boy genius coach facing off against the Sith Lord of the NFL, Bill Belichek. We have the young gunslinger in Jared Goff against the old man who just won’t quit and who is universally loathed pretty much […]

Well it looks like it’s time for an encore folks. After last week’s ranty blog, I am betting that everyone is up for something more. What is he going to do next? Who’s the target? Horgan, right? It’s gotta be Horgan! (For the benefit of non-Canadian readers or those who (smartly) avoid politics, Horgan is the current premier of BC). No, it’s not Horgan, even though he is a tempting target. And it’s not anyone in the US because as I described last week I am not able to make any comments on American politics […]

I was drawing a little bit of a blank this week as last week’s torrent of wisdom relating to my Fearless ForecastTM  was, shall we say, somewhat draining and we appear to be in the middle of some January blahs right now what with the snow and the government shutdown. It’s so blah not even the upcoming Super Blood Wolf Moon (a real thing) or Donald Trump serving hamberders (another real thing) can seem to shake me out of it.   So accordingly I am going to do something that I should have done a […]

Are you ready for it? Because I sure am! Brace yourselves dear readers – it is that time of year where I lay myself bare to all of your collective scorn and ridicule and put out the one and only Fearless Forecast that you absolutely must read, right now, before the market opportunity escapes you! Read it!   That’s right, step right up now and let me tell you about the prognostications that will amplify and electrify your portfolios. The stock picks and the macro directions that will set you on the path to eternal […]

Note from me – WordPress changed the way it does its posts so I haven’t been able to figure paragraph spacing yet. Many apologies. Just think, 2018 only ended a mere 4 days ago and it is so forgettable that I have forgotten all about it. Except when I am reminded of it. Like now. When I am forced to look back at what happened last year and compare that to what I expected to happen. Put another way, ever wonder what happens when a prognosticator celebrates their own brilliance a mere ¾ of the […]

Well here it is, Christmas Eve, the shopping is finally stopping and the family is sitting around being uber-lazy and getting ready for the big day. Normally I don’t do a midweek blog but this year I feel the need for one last communication as we wonder what 2019 has in store for us. I know one thing for sure, I am extremely hopeful we aren’t in for a repeat of, say, the last 4 months, because that’s been pretty ugly no matter where you sit.   That said, I am feeling a bit more […]

Well, that was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? No sooner had the OPEC+/Russia and others deal been extended, signed and delivered as promised than that old sneaky spoiler of the party – unimpeded, explosive shale oil growth and negative market sentiment – raised its ugly head again and promptly knocked the feet out from under the market faster than you can say yippee ki-yay!   You will notice I left out the end of that sentence, but most people in North America know there is an M and an F involved. And of course […]

As the holiday season ramps up and we get closer and closer to Christmas, some of you may have noticed a disturbing trend in this blog. Namely, that we have a whole bunch of things we need to cover off before we leave and that the blog seems somehow rushed, like I am in a big hurry to get out of the office and do some Christmas shopping even though, like most of the guys I know, I have a tendency to do all of this on the last day of shopping in the busiest […]

So that’s it then. All the storm and fury, the price gyrations, the leaks, the tweets, the media frenzy. It has all culminated in this – a very predictable cut in oil production from the OPEC/NOPEC/OPEC+/RUKSA whatchamacallit.   Phew right? I told all of you last week that something momentous and earth-moving was in the offing and I wasn’t wrong. Big things!   It was admittedly pretty exciting to watch from the safety of my chair here in Calgary, but I bet it was far more exciting to be standing around outside the OPEC building […]

This week is what I will call the calm before the storm since as we all know next weekend is the granddaddy of them of them all, the Kentucky Derby of the oil year. That time when all things momentous are decided and the fate of the free world is determined by a gathering of thugs, despots and wannabe dictators. I am referring of course to the upcoming OPEC meeting where they will debate (for show) the cuts in production they have already agreed to.   But really, enough about that. Right now we are […]

An abbreviated blog this week as we at Stormont celebrate American Thanksgiving by sending an endless amount of emails to all our American contacts asking them inane question because we know they are on holiday and it bugs us. Particularly since Canadian Thanksgiving was 6 weeks ago.   Speaking of Thanksgiving, I would like to give thanks for the eminent wisdom of government, in particular the provincial government as they struggle with the issue of landlocked Alberta resources and try to find solutions for how to get Alberta oil out to the masses of buyers […]

Well it sure has been a tough couple of months for those of us in the oil business as prices have taken it on the chin and it seems even kindly old grammas that you help across the street are swatting at us with their umbrellas.   I know I talked about this last week, but the turnaround has been so rapid, that it is really hard to talk about much else. That said, I am glad to see that markets have stabilized, for now, and OPEC and Russia seem to be ready to cut […]

As some of you are reading this the price of oil has dropped below $26 a barrel which as we all know is the low it reached in February 2016.  This is a remarkable fall from grace for a commodity that just a few short weeks ago was being pegged for a healthy run at $100 a barrel.   What? I’m wrong? It’s not below $26? What gives? Well it must be below $40. What with all the panic selling happening. Honestly, I’m still shocked but $40 has to be the floor right?   Still […]

Well you heard it here first, the Canadian oilpatch is done. That’s what I hear in the media anyway. Shut off the lights and go home folks, nothing to see here. Please move along. Investing in Canada, if it was ever a good thing is now a guaranteed dud. Bre-X after the helicopter thing. An income trust on November 2, 2006. A tech stock after posting record earnings that beat estimates, but not by enough.   Yup, it is indeed hard times here in the oilpatch. Just ask Suncor, Cenovus, Encana, Crescent Point. Literally bleeding […]

So folks, here we are. A mere five sleeps away from my second favourite holiday of the year – Halloween. What? It’s not a holiday? That can’t be right. We have a bank holiday, a family day, a May long weekend holiday – why can’t we have a Halloween holiday? I mean it’s not like anything gets done on Halloween. It’s that weird day of the year where you sit at your desk eating black & orange foil wrapped chocolates, avoiding the black licorice and then, when you go for your lunchtime walk, you don’t […]

Well it’s been quite the week hasn’t it? Exhausting is one word that comes to mind. Overwhelming is another. Actually scratch that. It’s been literally months of this energy and pipeline roller-coaster, such that I feel sometimes I am close to losing my mind.   Speaking of which, I was recently doing a little investigative work for a client who was very curious about the “personalities behind the stories” as he believes that if you truly understand what motivates someone you can make investment profits by exploiting that. My own personal opinion, careful what you […]

One of the nice things about Thanksgiving, which I failed to mention last week is the copious amount of turkey and potatoes and gravy and stuffing you get to eat, which of course is one of the bad things about it too. Combine this overindulgence of tryptophan with, say, a bit too much bourbon and wine and then stir in the beginnings of a “man-cold” and you have a recipe for the crazy weird dreams I have been having.   And after having lived through the last few months of project approvals and delays, record […]

For those of you who pay attention to these things, this coming weekend is Canadian Thanksgiving. If you’re busy, and I’m betting quite a few of you are, you’re welcome for the reminder. If you’re Canadian, yes Monday is a stat.   My American friends will note of course that Canadian Thanksgiving is earlier than American Thanksgiving. The simple reason for this is that we like to have it before the first snow of the season wrecks all of the beautiful fall foliage and the temperature is still warm. I remember growing up in Quebec […]

Well, another three months have gone by and it seems that all of the progress we made in the second quarter has been mercilessly unwound by forces both within and outside of our control.   And the result is that my fearless forecast of 2018 appears to have completely upended and sent on its merry way as pipelines got under way and then were stopped, stopped pipelines were suddenly back underway and once left for dead pipelines (no, not Energy East) appear to have been resurrected and suddenly have a schedule.   Production growth continues […]