**Caution – Provocative and long-winded opinion to follow. May contain nuts**

 
So, this is what we have been building up to for what seems like the past 2884 months. (Months since July 4 1776).

 

I am of course referring to the NDP carbon tax economic impact analysis. No wait, the ATB economic update for the province of Alberta. No, the federal government and its fall economic update. Seriously folks, it’s the joint PSAC/CAPP drilling forecast for 2017. Bank of Canada rate decision? FOMC meeting? Cubs win?

 

Okay, okay, okay. We are talking about November 8th. That momentous random Tuesday that occurs every four years when the United States, our loud, somewhat problematic neighbour to the south deigns to let us know the direction of the free world for the next four years.

 

While I have a feeling that no matter what happens, it’s going to be a bit of a shit show, there are critical factors that we, as neutral observers sitting in America’s Hat, like to objectively analyze and pass judgement on that are, how do I say this, quite different from what we sometimes hear from both mainstream and social media.

 

Of course part of the problem in this intensely partisan electoral season is the whole self-reinforcing bias that social media gives you – progressives follow progressives and conservatives follow conservatives. So each becomes set in their ways and their views and opinions are reinforced rather than challenged by what they choose to follow.

 

Look, I know this is a recurring theme and if you read this blog, you probably know where I am landing. But, putting all my cards are on the table, I am a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Canadian from Montreal who has lived the past 24 years in western Canada. If I lived in the United States, I would likely be an Independent who would hew to whichever candidate was in my estimation closest to the centre on issues I care most about. I have no real biases either way and in past American elections since 1980 when I first started paying attention, I’m probably 50/50 when it comes to Republicans vs Democrat candidates.

 

Anyway, for the purposes of this discussion, let’s separate this into “who should win” and “who will win”.

 

Who should win

I don’t know that there should really be a debate about this. I mean seriously, this is the most important job in the world after host of The Amazing Race and through this entire campaign, there has been only one candidate who has demonstrated the maturity and temperament to ascend to the role of president and who has the experience and capability to do an effective job.

 

And yes, that person is Hillary Clinton. Sorry. I know some of my readers may object or strenuously disagree, but I cannot envisage a scenario, foreign or domestic, where she doesn’t come out in top.

 

Where Donald trump is vain, petty, spiteful and unhinged, Hillary is calm, cool and collected.

 

Where Donald trump appeals, whether overtly or silently, to the worst in all of us – our fears, our racism, our misogyny, our base instincts, Hillary has taken the road less travelled, the high road – trying to be a messenger of hope, inclusiveness and optimism. Often times it seems stilted and contrived, but at least she is trying. Look, I get it, people are mad. But what are you mad at and how is this particular candidate going to fix it?

 

Well then it comes to policy.

 

And on policy, there is little to compare because one party basically wrote and memorized a book about policy, the other seems to get their policy ideas from the drunk guy at the end of the bar.

 

Immigration – deport all the illegals, build a wall says Drumpf, Mexico will pay. Good luck with that, not even remotely realistic.

 

Terrorism – Keep ’em out. Profile and screen Muslims. Torture. War. Let Russia do it.

 

Race relations – ghettos suck, war zone, out of control crime. Brown and black people are bad.

 

Trade – America is losing on trade, let’s tear up all these agreements. And replace them with what exactly? Tariffs? Create a trade war. Isn’t the whole point of trade to get things you need in exchange for things you have an excess of? It’s not a battle to win, it’s a mutually beneficial arrangement. How long do you think people will trade with you if you are a bad partner?

 

Energy – dig for coal! Double down! But it’s a declining fuel source at home and so needs to be exported, except you tore up a bunch of trade agreements.

 

Health care – Obama care is too expensive – gonna get rid of it and replace it with…? Nothing. Back to the system before where insurance companies deny coverage and Joe the plumber goes bankrupt because his wife has heart palpitations.

 

Trustworthiness: Donald trump has been involved in almost a lawsuit a day for the past decade. His financial disclosure is a joke. He has refused to release his tax returns. He is being sued for fraud and racketeering and is being taken to court in the next 3 months for his scam university as well as child rape charges. He stiffs his suppliers and wears as a badge of honour his so-called philanthropy which has been proven to be both a joke and an invention. His foundation exists for typical self-aggrandizement and has been used for “off the book expenses.” It has been well documented that he is a compulsive and pathological liar.

 

Tax – the Donald’s prescription is to lower taxes aggressively for the top 1% of income earners with smaller cuts for other brackets and proposes to roll back the death tax. Of course the plan is unfunded so will require cuts in social programs to pay for the 10% reduction in taxes for millionaires – just wondering how this helps the little guy? Unless the little guy refers to Donald Jr.

 

Foreign policy – abandon the most successful treaty organization the modern world has known (NATO). Cozy up to Russia and its regime? Demand protection money from weaker allies? Is this the United States or an episode of the sopranos?

 

Temperament – Donald Drumpf has demonstrated himself to be thin-skinned and vindictive. He is a narcissist who is obsessed with winning at all costs. There is no nuance in Donald Drumpf, no compromise. He says this about himself – why would we project anything else on him? It’s probably the only time he has been honest.

 

What about the other candidate?

 

Ambitious. Flawed. The ultimate insider. Uninspiring. “Corrupt”. Married to Bill. Has some major strikes against her. That said, some of her major perceived weaknesses also underline her strengths – experience, grasp of policy, maturity.

 

Emails – yes, this is a major problem, but not for the reasons everyone latches onto. She should never have used a personal server. But it’s not like this is without precedent. By both democrats and republicans. Former and CURRENT members of government. This is a tempest in a teapot that has been relentlessly spun by Republicans into a frenzy to pander to their base, take down Hillary Clinton and create a narrative of corruption that distracts from their own weaknesses. Why is it such a problem then? Because it’s one that won’t go away, especially if Republicans hold the House – a massive and meaningless distraction they can continue harping on for years. It’s a major weak point and if she loses, it will be because of this.

 

Clinton Foundation. Yes, fishy. Maybe. But it’s audited. We can see the financials and where the money goes. It does great things. And it’s named after someone people don’t like. Pay to play? Influence peddling? Come on. Is it actually documented and proven or speculated? The thing is named after and run by one of the most popular presidents in history. Of course it’s going to attract donations from the broad cross-section of governments and individuals that the Clinton’s have interacted with over the years. Why not turn this on its head and instead of focusing on why the Clinton Foundation is so successful, why don’t we ask why the “noted philanthropist” Donald Drumpf’s Drumpf Foundation is such a colossal, unregistered, self-serving failure? Just saying.

 

On the economy, the Clinton agenda proposes little if any radical change. Pragmatic approach to trade. Infrastructure investment (anyone sick of that term yet?). Investment in the green economy (ugh). But overall, not a lot of change.

 

Taxes – raise taxes aggressively on the richest 1%, modestly on the rest. I don’t know about you, but I can figure out which plan impacts the most people. Fully costed and fully funded plan.

 

Temperament – Hillary Clinton has spent more than 30 years in the public eye, is known as a clear thinking consensus builder (note – you don’t have to agree with someone’s policies to recognize their ability to build consensus). During this election cycle, never mind the last 30 years of being in the Republican cross-hairs, she has demonstrated a coolness under pressure that is in many ways remarkable. When was the last time Hillary Clinton lost it on Twitter, threatened a person attending a rally, mocked an opponent, insulted someone’s physical appearance, lashed out vindictively without thinking… Yeah, that’s what I thought. Admittedly, she can train her sights on her enemies and those who threaten her, but really that means she’s tough, right? She spent four years as Secretary of State dealing with some of the most despicable despots around.

 

In this election cycle, only one of the candidates has demonstrated an ability to be presidential, grasp issues and build consensus amongst both allies and opponents. And that person is Hillary Clinton. Look, you don’t have to agree with her on all issues, but sometimes it’s OK for the best candidate to win, not the best party, especially when the other candidate is such an unpredictable wildcard.

 

Plus, she’s a woman. It’s time.

 

But don’t take my word for it, here is what David Frum, speechwriter to George W and ultra Republican has to say:

 

www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/dont-gamble-on-trump/506207/

 

So? Who will win?

Hillary. In this election and against this candidate, it shouldn’t even be close. She should have 300+ electoral votes and a clear plurality.

 

But if the last few weeks and recent elections in Alberta, Canada and Europe and referendums around the world have told us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected. So Donald may keep it close – if he wins Florida at least the television will be good. In that case, maybe 280 to 290 electoral votes, to Clinton. Who still wins.

 

That’s it.

 

Let the Circus begin.

 

Prices as at November 4, 2016 (October 28, 2016)

• The price of oil ended the week down on concerns OPEC may be challenged to implement its cuts.
  • Storage posted a very large and surprise increase
  • Production was up marginally
  • The rig count was up
• Natural gas was down during the week as the market continues to trade on weather projections

• WTI Crude: $44.07 ($48.70)
• Nymex Gas: $2.767 ($3.105)
• US/Canadian Dollar: $0.746 ($ 0.74705)

 

Highlights

• As at October 28, 2016, US crude oil supplies were at 482.6 million barrels, an increase of 14.4 million barrels from the previous week and 31.8 million barrels ahead of last year.
  • The number of days oil supply in storage was 31.2, same as last year’s 31.2.
  • Production was up for the week at 8.522 million barrels per day. Production last year at the same time was 9.160 million barrels per day. The change in production this week came from a slight increase in Alaska deliveries and lower 48 production.
  • Imports spiked to 8.995 million barrels a day, compared to 6.943 million barrels per day last year.
  • Refinery inputs were down marginally during the week at 15.448 million barrels a day
• As at October 28, 2016, US natural gas in storage was 3,963 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 5% above the 5-year average and about 1% higher than last year’s level, following an implied net injection of 54 Bcf during the report week.
  • Overall U.S. natural gas consumption was up 1% during the week as higher power demand offset declines in industrial and residential demand.
  • Production for the week was flat and imports from Canada fell by 5% from the week before
  • Total natural gas demand in the Lower 48 states reached record levels during the 2016 injection season (April through October).
• As of October 31,  the Canadian rig count was at 162 (24% utilization), 108 Alberta (24%), 20 BC (26%), 30 Saskatchewan (26%), 3 Manitoba (20%)). Utilization for the same period last year was about 25%.
• US Onshore Oil rig count at October 28 was at 450, up 9 from the week prior.
  • Rig count at January 1, 2015 was 1,482
• Natural gas rigs drilling in the United States was up 3 at 117.
  • Rig count at January 1, 2015 was 328
• US split of Oil vs Gas rigs is 80%/20%, in Canada the split is 55%/45%
• Offshore rig count was down 1 at 21
  • Offshore rig count at January 1, 2015 was 55

 

Drillbits

• Selected earnings reports for Q3 – it’s a mixed bag!
  • CNRL reported Net Loss of $326 million up from $111 million in the same period last year, but management provided guidance to improving results and expects stringer performance going forward
  • Encana reported net earnings of $317 million versus a loss of $1,236 million in same period last year .
  • Apache reported a net loss of $607 million vs a loss of $4,143 million in the same period last year.
  • Penngrowth reported adjusted net earnings of $18.5 million versus a loss of $374 million in the same period last year
  • Seven Generations reported net loss of $2.2 million for the quarter vs a $53.7 loss in the same period last year. Cash flow from operations was $211.9 million vs $94.9 million in the same periods
  • Gibsons reported Adjusted EBITDA of $62.6 million for the quarter vs $95.1 million in the same period last year.
  • TransCanada reported EBITDA of $1,886 million for the quarter vs $1.,483 billion in the same period last year
• CNRL has re-initiated development of its Kirby North thermal project, the first growth project in the oilsands to come off the drawing board in this current cycle
• Nova Gas Transmission had its $1.3 billion NGTL expansion project approved by the Federal Government.
• A major pipeline rupture on a gasoline transportation pipelineowned by Colonial Pipelines occurred last Momday due to a line strike. One person died and five were injured. It is expected the pipeline will reopen this weekend, but gas prices spiked on the news.
• Woodfiber LNG announced that they were proceeding with their project near Squamish making them the first to proceed,.The $1.6 billion project will create 650 jobs during construction and 100 operational jobs.
• Drumpf Watch: See above. I am eminently hopeful to retire this feature after next week, but promise to replace it with something equally odd should that happen.