America – You are Great! Again. I guess.
So much déjà vu all over again. I feel like it’s maybe 2016!
And what a night! Unlike 2016 where I watched the results trickle in with Wolf Blitzer getting excited about a 10 vote swing in Fiddle-Faddle County North Carolina and CNN with their magic wall, this year I followed the election results on Twitter which was interesting since as I follow both right, centre and left wing people I was able to feel their full range of emotions and disbelief as the evening unfolded.
And just like in 2016 we were surrounded by all this technology and revelatory pre-election day polling and exit polls and talking heads and pundits and smug Canadians like me and people around the world telling everyone in the United States how to vote.
And just like in 2016 a whole bunch of Americans followed our instructions and voted.
In big numbers. In surprising numbers. In surprising ways. And people got the result they wanted. Some people got the result they never wanted. But you know what? They voted. And the people spoke. And they said:
Donald Trump…. Wait, what????
Again?
Seriously?
Welp. Merp. Alrighty then.
Democracy is the ultimate sorting hat and this is the result, I could say Slitheren but that’s too obvious. Rarely perfect, never pretty, democracy always wins. As I said to my kids, or myself, I forget – regardless of the result isn’t it great to be in a world where you don’t actually know the result before it happens? Because in a lot of countries, it isn’t whether party A or B wins, it’s whether the unopposed leader decides he’s getting 92% of the vote this time instead of 93%.
That said, Republican or Democrat it is time to do a little self-reflection. What are the forces that conspired to have this dude elected again. This time with (so far, the counting continues) a majority of the popular vote, so no waggling fingers at 3rd party vote splitting or swing state shenanigans. Was it inflation and economic worry? Was it misogyny and closet racism? Was it anger at illegal immigration? Was is the anti-incumbent wave that is toppling governments right, left and centre ever since COVID? Was it people wanting a “show” more than they wanted policy? Was it Ukraine fatigue? Was it nationalism, nativism or isolationism? Was it cheating?
Was it all of the above? Probably yes. And maybe no. Most likely not the cheating part. Although I was amused at the texts some people received the day after the election from the Trump campaign complaining about cheating. Note to file, when you win, delete the pre-programmed victimhood.
I’ll tell you one thing for sure, it wasn’t tariffs. No one actually understands them (least of all Donald Trump) and no one actually wants them. Although apparently we are getting them. Inflation 2.0, here we come.
And notwithstanding the Hitler comparisons and fears about fascism and recrimination and score settling, Donald Trump and his team suddenly have a country to run and need to understand that while getting more than 50% of the vote is unprecedented for the modern Republicans, it’s going to be a high water mark that will disappear quickly if they F it up. And it is in no way a landslide.
The electorate has already proven how fickle they can be. God help the Republicans if the electorate turned on them, because they will at the slightest misstep. Donald Trump is surrounded by crazies, sycophants and toadies, but also grifters and profiteers. It’s going to be hard to keep them all in check and still run the family business. There will be missteps. It is guaranteed and the blowback will be fierce. The Democratic Party may be soft and unwilling to fight dirty – the electorate is another story.
Further to that and not to be outdone, the Democrats need to understand they lost. And even it wasn’t a landslide, they still lost badly. This despite a candidate who appeared to check all the boxes – heck, I endorsed her even though I disagreed with some of their policies. They had the money advantage, they had the enthusiasm advantage. They just didn’t end up with the vote advantage. The youth vote was theirs. They signed up millions of new voters. And still got thumped. There is a reason somewhere that billionaire (in theory) Donald Trump and his Musk-Muppet resonated so strongly with economically marginalized constituencies and if I’m a Democrat, I’m looking to figure that out because that is supposed to be my core constituency. Working people hate fat cats. Unless they like to eat them? I give up.
The other constituency they need to figure out? Middle-aged people – all races, but mostly white. I saw one sampling of votes that showed the that the democrats won every age group by varying degrees except the 45-64 year old block that Trump carried by a big margin. Generation X. Kids voted Kamala, their parents voted Trump. I’m in that age cohort. I am truly puzzled. I guess home ownership breeds complacency?
Dems – why are progressive measures winning down-ballot but the house, senate and presidency flipped red? It’s a bit mind-boggling. In Arizona, the largest city has a female Deomcrat mayor. A female Democrat governor. A newly elected Democrat Senator. A shiny new pro-abortion rights measure. And currently a 52.5/46.5 split to Trump for president. It makes no sense. It can’t only be because Harris was female and black. It can’t only be because there was no primary. Big reversals are driven by mood. The Dems need to learn how to identify a mood, capture it, understand it and course-correct for it or President JD Vance is going to roll to re-election in 2028.
Anyway, there will be lots of time to review the results and parse what happened, but really, no one saw this coming. Except for that French guy who placed a $40 million bet on Trump winning the EC and the popular vote. He cleaned up. I want him picking my fantasy team.
Most of all, it is time to move on. This has been a massively divisive campaign that laid bare a lot of what is ugly about the United States for all to see. It can’t be glossed over. It needs to be worked on, patiently, methodically and with determination and grit. This is likely not Donald Trump’s strength – you can’t solve racism via deportation, you can’t win back the hearts and minds of women with RFK Jr. You can’t solve economic anxiety by creating the conditions that guarantee more of it. That said, he technically has four years. Odfds are he will get some stuff right, even if it’s unintentional.
As a caution though, and before we get ahead of ourselves on the hope train – for all you people who think he may soften and become presidential and maybe not try to implement all the ugly stuff he promised and maybe voted for him on that basis – are you high? Has the last 8 years taught you nothing? Based on the last few days of him talking and his surrogates blathering, it is clear that it ALL starts on day 1. It’s coming. Two publicly traded private prison operators stocks have rallied by 80% since the election. And it’s going to be incredibly ugly. How do you deport millions of people? It’s estimated it will cost up to $100 billion a year to deport illegal immigrants who contribute $90 billion a year to social security (that they can even collect). The effects on the economy are unquantifiable. The humanitarian cost is unimaginable. And what do you do if you are Canada? There is no guarantee that countries want their people back. Where will the refugees go? Canada is close. But is it welcoming? Should it be welcoming? We are already scaling back our immigration programs in the face of public resistance and a housing crisis. We are completely unprepared for the expected – the unexpected will overwhelm us.
I could go on, but… I have a a maximum word count.
At the end of the day, I need to talk to my daughters about this because they are really interested in what happened, one can already vote and the other will be able to vote in the next provincial election. It is an excellent time to show them that a) elections have consequences and b) voters can actually effect change at the ballot box, it’s just not always the change you want.
What an opportunity to let them know that the voters ALWAYS get the government they deserve. And the only way to change that is to vote. It matters. It did today. It will tomorrow. It will when it’s their turn.
Keep informed, keep active, keep participating. Don’t take any loss too hard because you need to be ready the day after. Don’t celebrate any win too much, because reversal is one completed ballot away and circumstances change quickly.
Most of all, as my wife says, the sun comes up every day. Even in winter.
And now it’s time to get back to work, we have to figure out how to avoid tariffs and the upcoming border surge. Oh and maybe funding our military.
And yes, Trudeau needs to call an election sooner rather than later and deal with the personal consequences. Hanging on is going to harm the country. Canadians deserve to have a say in how we are going to address our newly sharp-elbowed southern neighbour. Get on with it.
