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Crude Observations

Letters to the Big Guy

So just the other day, I happened to be walking by one of those postal pick-up thingys – whatever they are called, you know, where Canada Post dumps and sorts your mail and you have to throw on your bathrobe and slippers in the dead of night and drive out to and pick up the mail? The ones they suddenly want to get rid of and go back to home delivery along with, apparently, buying myspace and AOL?

 

At any rate, there I was in front of one of them when I noticed on the ground a great big mail bag. And this mail bag was open, with a bunch of letters spilling out.

 

Now, I am fully aware that it is a felony to open up someone else’s mail, but let’s be honest – who hasn’t on occasion received a neighbour’s mail, like a bank statement or something, and opened it out of curiosity then hastily and guiltily tossed it into the recycling bin like it was on fire (thus effectively making it the identity thieves’ problem). Not me, that’s who! What kind of people are you?

 

However, in this instance, the open bag with mail spilling out was an irresistible draw.

 

Why? Well because each letter was addressed to one “Santa Claus” c/o “North Pole” and checking the return addresses, it revealed a pretty interesting grab bag of letter writers. And of course each one of those letters was a Christmas Wish list for Santa.

 

Let’s be clear, far be it for me to judge each letter writer on the whole good/bad continuum and pass judgement on whether they would receive their wish or a lump of coal (well at least until 2030 when coal is phased out), but I thought in the interests of journalistic integrity I needed to share with you some of the highlights. So forthwith, a bunch of these letters.

 

Dear Santa,

I hope you are doing well. I have been really good this year as you may know from my many fashion spreads and photographs with world leaders. My list is actually small this year. First, I would like prosperity for the middle class – because if I don’t mention that I get in trouble. Second, I would really appreciate some positive affirmation for being the only world leader to actually do something about those Paris accord commitments – or at least pretend to. Third, now that I have announced in favour of some pipelines but against others, can we go back to that time when everyone loved me and my wife and no one cared about my foundation? Lastly, I hear the new iPhone has way more memory and a better camera for selfies?

Sincerely, Justin T

PS – I almost forgot, can you do something about Brad Wall?

 

Dear Santa,

I’m going to try and keep it simple this year, but all I want for Christmas is NO DAMN CARBON TAX! Oh yeah, and a bit more national profile. Maybe a French tutor.

Regards

Brad W

 

Dear Santa

Where to start? This year is going to be tough for all of us here in BC. So in no particular order, I wouldn’t mind having an LNG plant (or two), an election win and for Gregor Robertson to fall into a big tank of diluted bitumen. Not sure I want a pipeline, but if it has to happen, a little under the table cash from Alberta to grease the wheels would go a long way to soothing the “pain”. Oh yeah, and a dam.

Hugs and kisses – Christy C.

 

Dear Santa

Given that I already got everything I wanted from that list I shared an April of 2015, I think I’m good. Wait, I just realized I never mailed that list. Whoops! Darn it! OK, so in arrears, thanks for letting me raise taxes in no less than three ways, including my favourite, the upcoming carbon tax which is really a PST, but don’t tell anyone. Thanks too for the newly approved pipelines, the minimum wage hike and new farm safety rules that no one likes. Oh wait, there is one thing you can give me for Christmas, if you can figure out how to do it – it would be really appreciated if you could help me dig out of this mess I have made in the electricity sector? I’m not sure how it happened, but it appears we really screwed that one up and no one is happy with me.

Toodles – Rachel

 

Hey Santa – pretty simple. I need a job. So does my best bud. And my neighbour. And lots of people I see on the street. Can you help a brother out?

Sincerely – John Q Oilpatch Worker

 

Hi Santa
So it looks like Christmas has come early this year with prices recovering a bit, although I’m not sure you had anything to do with that. We are getting busy again which is awesome, but if you could see your way to getting banks to lend me some cash for working capital that would be awesome. You see the problem is that most of my clients won’t pay me for at least 90 days after I invoice them while my bills for labour, fuel and consumables are generally due and paid inside of 20 days. So I end up having to fund field work for my E&P clients out of my own pocket for way longer than any other industry in the country. It’s weird, and stupid, right? Like what kind of business can survive on that kind of crazy business model? I’ll tell you want kind, none! Seriously, banks have no problem lending billions to producers who sit on that cash, don’t spend it and call it efficiency, but what’s wrong with me? Seriously, a little cash or this is going to be the weirdest looking recovery ever and I’m really concerned that I won’t make it to February.

Cheers, Joe the Energy Services Business Owner

 

Dear Santa

Hillary here. I thought I was good this year and I’ve been asking to be President since 19 freaking 67! –  but I guess that’s not good enough and some people thought I was bad. Whatever. How about a time machine? Actually, never mind. I’m out.

HRC

 

Dear Big Guy –

Love the suit, I have many ties that colour, in fact I have a factory that makes Santa suits. It’s a great factory, none better, employs lots of great American workers – well they’re not really American, but if you replace a bunch of letters in Chinese with other letters, it spells American, or so I’m told. Love the rosy cheek thing too, mine are more orange, which is a far superior colour, but you do OK.

Christmas this year in the Trump house is going to be huge! It’s going to be the bigliest Christmas ever, believe me, I know how to do Christmas, I’m going to do the best Christmas, just watch me. Anyway, all kidding aside – I have this new job (job! I’ve never even had a job!) and believe me, it’s scaring the sh** out of me. I mean people are asking me to read, attend meetings, delegate, compromise. I mean what’s up with that? How do we win doing that crap? And how does that make America Great Again? Seriously, I may actually have to move to Washington into some drafty white McMansion that has nowhere near enough rooms or gold. There isn’t even a throne.

Anything you can do to get me out of this is appreciated. I mean I tried everything! Misogyny, mocking handicapped people, a wall, profiling, racism – I even had Vlad from Moscow run my campaign. I made sure I lost the popular vote and then I won that stupid electoral college thing (some college – it doesn’t even charge tuition! Need to fix that), I tried to nominate people to my government that would piss people off and now they are saying some of my choices are pretty smart. Are you kidding me? Not to mention I have left all my glaringly obvious business conflicts in place and will never, ever let anyone see my taxes – you think I want Melania to know how much I’m really worth? Last of all Alec Baldwin is really picking on me and he has lots of Twitter people on the Googles – it’s triggering me and I feel I need a safe place. Seriously, I didn’t want this job, I just like the publicity. I guess I’m saying you gotta get me out of here.

Don

 

Dear Santa

Look, you are a pop culture creation and totally from the wrong side of the religion tracks, but I just did a deal with a bunch of people I wouldn’t leave my kids alone with and I’m trying to hedge my bets so for Christmas it would be nice if you could make my cartel “partners” at least try to adhere to our deal. And rain the fires of eternal damnation upon them if they don’t!!!!!

Best – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

 

Dear Santa

Last year I ask for Donald Trump to be president of USA. Thank you so much for delivery. In honour and thanks, I kill rabid grizzly with toothpick while shirtless (I post picture to Instagram). This year, I think I have been good boy, so please give to me all countries that end in letters “stan”.

Dasvidanya, V. Putin

 

Dear Santa

It would be really nice if this year people would pay attention to me. I mean my brother from a dinosaur mother gets all the attention, but I’ve been working out extra hard this year and I think I can contribute to the recovery if people would just give me the chance. So, if you could let the folks at BNN and those US business stations know I exist, that would be fab.

Sincerely, natural gas

 

Dear Santa

We’re perfect, we need nothing. Well OK. A molehill. We’ll take it from there.

Love, the media.

 

Prices as at December 16, 2016 (December 9, 2016)

  • The price of oil rallied at the beginning of the week on the announcement on non-OPEC output cuts but gave ground as the week went on after the US Fed raised interest rates and the dollar strengthened before ultimately closing slightly up.
    • Storage posted a surprise decrease
    • Production rose
    • The rig count in the US and Canada continues to grow
  • Natural gas was up and down during the week as expectations in increased drilling offset a larger than normal withdrawal
  • WTI Crude: $51.90 ($51.50)
  • Nymex Gas: $3.415 ($3.746)
  • US/Canadian Dollar: $0.7489 ($ 0.7597)

 

Highlights

  • As at December 9, 2016, US crude oil supplies were at 483.2 million barrels, a decrease of 2.6 million barrels from the previous week and 24.8 million barrels ahead of last year.
    • The number of days oil supply in storage was 29.5, the same as last year’s 29.5.
    • Production was up for the week by 99,000 barrels a day at 8.796 million barrels per day. Production last year at the same time was 9.176 million barrels per day. The change in production this week came from no change in Alaska deliveries and a sizable jump in lower 48 production. With the increase in rig counts since the summer we will likely be seeing a gradual inflation in production numbers
    • Imports fell from 8.303 million barrels a day to 7.360, compared to 8.312 million barrels per day last year.
    • Refinery inputs were up during the week at 16.474 million barrels a day
  • As at December 9, 2016, US natural gas in storage was 3,806 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 5% above the 5-year average and about 1% less than last year’s level, following an implied net withdrawal of 147 Bcf during the report week.
    • Overall U.S. natural gas consumption was up 10% during the week as cold weather set in and demand increased across all sectors
    • Production for the week was flat and imports from Canada rose by 10% from the week before in response to cold weather
  • As of December 12, the Canadian rig count hit 232 (35% utilization), 167 Alberta (36%), 24 BC (32%), 36 Saskatchewan (31%), 5 Manitoba (33%)). Utilization for the same period last year was about 20%.
    • Maybe it’s me, but it feels like we haven’t seen utilization that high in Canada since March of 2015.
  • US Onshore Oil rig count at December 16 was at 510, up 12 from the week prior.
    • Rig count at January 1, 2015 was 1,482
  • Natural gas rigs drilling in the United States was up 1 at 126.
    • Rig count at January 1, 2015 was 328
  • US split of Oil vs Gas rigs is 80%/20%, in Canada the split is 50%/50%
  • Offshore rig count was unchanged at 22
    • Offshore rig count at January 1, 2015 was 55

 

Drillbits

  • Athabasca Oil Corp acquired the oilsands assets of Statoil for $582 million
  • PrairieSky Royalty announced a deal to buy royalty assets from Pwngrowth Energy for $250 million
  • Gulfport Energy Corporation entered an agreement to buy a portfolio company of Quantum Energy Partners in Oklahoma for US$1.85 billion
  • CNRL announced a 2017 capital budget targeted at approximately $3.9 billion
  • TORC Oil & Gas Ltd.announced a 2017 capital budget of $130 million
  • Raging River Exploration Inc. announced a 2017 capital budget of $310 million.
  • Husky Energy announced a capital expenditure program for 2017 in the range of $2.6-2.7 billion. Capital spending is expected to be fully funded within cash flow from operations
  • Trump Watch: it’s the Sexy Rexy and Tricky Ricky show. The Canadian energy industry’s future is in the hands of two Texans. Who would have ever predicted that. Go figure.
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