It’s an interesting little bit of insight that when you write a blog for as llong as I have, you suddenly find that you may have actually written about every topic and that it is quite common to find yourself repeating topics. Even when you think you have something original.
Case in point, this latest rout in the price of oil brings to mind the other 16 oil price routs I have written about since starting this blog. And the negative gas pricing? Been there done that. Recession coming? Wrote about that. Government obtuseness? Yup, wrote about that. Infrastructure deficits? You bet. Donald Trump running for president? Oh yeah, far too much.
Is it art imitates life? Maybe not. Only the Simpson’s (or Dr. Seuss) can do that where pretty much every absurd event that has occurred or will occur in the United States has been presciently preaged in one or more episodes of the Simpson’s.
My blog is like that too. We call remember with fondness the blog I wrote in January of 2016 talking about how immigrants were eating the dogs, cats and other pets of regular citizens in the town of Springfield Ohio. Wait Springfield? Isn’t that where the Simpson’s are? It’s actually hard to tell, because they never reveal a state and there is a Springfield in virtually every state in the US. At any rate, I wrote about it and now Donald Trump is ranting about it in a presidential debate. Clearly I am ahead of my time.
On the other hand, maybe instead of being prescient, I have had the bad luck to be around for some pretty traumatic times.
Certainly the oil portfolio part of it. I mean my stocks are down significantly since the price swoon started. Something I wrote about previously.
But as bad as it is for me, imagine what it is like for Donald Trump who has seen the value of his Truth Social stock plummet in the last month or so, including a whopping 18% the day after his debate with Kamala Harris. Investing is a dog-eat-dog world as they say and the Donald is learning a valuable lesson.
Actually, if you want to know who is learning a valuable lesson, it’s the assortment of grifters and morons who decided that they would risk their life savings on a stock backed by a company that has minimal revenue and loses money hand over fist and is nothing more than a grifty vehicle to skirt campaign contribution rules and put some quan in Mr. Trump’s pockets.
Since hitting its high of $72 back in March, the price of Trump Media Technology has fallen more than 75% to $16 and is headed for penny stock territory once Trump is free to sell his millions of shares next Friday.
It’s kind of like investing in energy – you need to be prepared to lose everything because for two weeks every seven years the cycle will lift you of the dirt and give you some positive days.
Speaking of Trump selling his shares and Fridays, I feel the regulators missed a golden opportunity to lift the restrictions on his ability to sell this Friday the 13th of September. It would have been awesome.
I for one, would not have been afraid of that particular Friday the 13th debacle because, as noted above, I am not stupidly invested in Trump stock, even if I stupidly own energy stocks.
But Stu, you may ask, what are you actually afraid of? Well that’s a good question, especially on a Friday the 13th, so let’s explore that!
And as (bad) luck would have it, today is Friday the 13th, a day for goalie masks and slasher films, but also sober reflection.
So, with all that fear built up inside of us, and myself as well and that whole Friday the 13th superstition, here are 10 (or more) things I am currently afraid of, if only to show you that a) you are not alone in your fears and b) I can be every bit as irrational and, to be honest, nutty, when it comes to fearfulness.
And while I do for sure have a full range of bizarre, permanent fears (more on those later), I also do find myself being regularly frightened by what is going on in the world around me – what I like to call “serious stuff”. Accordingly, I will do the real world stuff first and then get into the more quirky and endearing terrors I harbour, to lighten the mood.
And let’s face it, the current market and political environment should be enough to make anyone run into their lair hiding! So here you go, in no particular order, some serious fears and some … not so serious.
I am afraid of another 14 months of this Liberal Minority
This one is a little complex so bear with me. We all know that in the last election, the Liberal Party got a smaller minority than they had previously, prompting the Conservative Party of Canada to defenestrate yet another leader who dared to try to win votes east of Manitoba. Then the Liberal Party make its moves to consolidate and hang onto power as if they were a majority with their unholy arrangement with the NDP. With the passage of time however, Liberal support has completely cratered and if a election were to be held today it would be the political equivalent of an evisceration by the resurgent Conservatives and their pomade wearing, iron pumping fingernails on a chalkboard leader Pierre Poilievre.
Realizing that they were being dragged down by association with the government (only after saddling us with dental care and pharmacare), this agreement has now been terminated by the NDP, raising hopes for an election.
But nope – our besocked hair man in chief is clearly wanting to serve a full term, and why wouldn’t he? No one will wilfully choose to have their ass handed to them. If a government is going to be toppled, it has to come from the opposition. And while the Liberals and the NDP test new historic levels of poor support in the polls, the Conservatives are ascendant and the Bloc, well they’re the Bloc.
This means to stay in power the Liberals need support to survive a confidence vote and they have indicated a willingness to do a deal with the devil to get there. First it was the arrangement with the NDP, but now it’s going to be the Bloc, which means pandering to Quebec. Yay!
Although let’s face it, the NDP is broke so they aren’t likely to want to go to the polls early.
And everyone hates the conservatives and Poilievre. Well the parties that is – apparently the electorate is just fine with him, but since when has the electorate mattered anyway?
The Liberals seem to be able to do what they want in a minority position, we all know that the Liberal Party (the Natural Governing Party) craves nothing more than absolute power, so when the opportunity presents itself, they go for it. As an impartial observer, you have to admire their ruthlessness.
So here we are. The Liberals are basically unopposed even though they no longer have any alliances. And that makes me fearful. Their leader is massively unpopular. They are free to enact their agenda, which admittedly has some decent ideas, of massive spending hikes into one the most precarious economic environments I can recall.
They fumbled housing, they fumbled immigration. What makes anyone think they won’t completely fumble Canada’s current productivity gap crisis and our rapidly declining living standards next to our neighbours and peers.
I’m sorry, but having the wannabe Liberal leader and conveniently global elite Mark Carney head a star chamber to analyze and report back on how to fix Canada just when an election is due is nowhere near the sense of urgency needed to address this economic crisis.
The Liberals achilles heel is their utter disdain for and lack of ideas on the economy and their slavish devotion to climate change. The former needs to be a priority over the latter. It must be. But I don’t think the current government incarnation actually gets that. And it will be to the detriment of Canadians.
Is there a chance that the Liberals call a snap election before 2025? Not a chance. Is there a chance the NDP can grow some cojones and topple the LPC? Nope.
Is there a chance that Trudeau will step down and allow a new leader to emerge? Not before the G7 in Kananaskis next summer.
I don’t care where you sit on the political partisan continuum, but this is a frightening prospect for Canada. We are withering and we need change.
Look, I know that Pierre Poilievre, the freedom-loving, crypto fan boy, shawarma-buying, central bank bashing, money-printer hating, elite poking, gatekeeper abhorring, Justinflation excoriating, basic finance misunderstanding, banker threatening, real estate grifting, Jordan Peterson-reading dilettante populist isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but I’m feeling that “change for change’s sake” territory has arrived. Canadians want it. Trudeau is denying us the choice.
I am afraid that Climate Change has irreversibly crossed into New Religion Territory
This isn’t new. We have actually been there for a while. The disciples of climate fear and fear-mongering all long ago realized that they needed an army of true believers to push forward the more radical levels of change. Before we go down that road – yes, climate change is real. Yes, it is readily identifiable as man-made.
But the rhetoric, the sweeping generalizations, the endless hyping of disaster scenarios, all of this is an investment in a diminishing return and leads to inevitable backtracking and skepticism when scenarios don’t pan out as precisely predicted (snow in Texas – global warming isn’t real!) or hypocritical policy stances are put forward (no KXL, we are electrifying everything, stopping drilling in Texas and, oh, by the way, OPEC we need more oil so Jimmy in Arkansas isn’t paying as much at the pump).
As the lines harden and the New Church of Her Lady of Climate Inevitability gathers more devotees and adherents, I worry that the polarization we see in seemingly every other aspect of life will continue to harden in climate land, especially as the costs of energy and climate salvation (not transition anymore) become more obvious to the income inequal proletariat.
The more strident the warnings, the bigger the doomsday scenarios, the more skeptical the fence sitters become. There is a reason the “Boy Who Cried Wolf” is so relevant at this moment.
The energy transition is a massively complex, multi-generational endeavour that will cost trillions of dollars, upend the traditional economic order and benefit/displace billions of people. Having the high priests of Global catastrophe preaching relentlessly to us regular folk from the comfort of their private jets about imminent disaster and chaos isn’t going to cut it. Look, we get it. Calm down. Back off. There is no such thing as Fiat Climate Rescue.
I am afraid that this next/last oil and gas boom may pass us by
This seems like a weird one to say for an industry participant. But ironically, it stems partly from the first two fears above. We are actually in the midst of a significant upturn in the Canadian energy sector, driven by the building out of actual infrastructure to move product, the knock-on effects of the OPEC+ supply issues, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic induced collapse in demand and investment and subsequent sharp recovery across most consuming sectors, the massive runup in prices and subsequent “readjustment” and our unique position as a massive supplier of oil and gas.
All the pieces are lined up for a big run.
So why am I afraid?
An unopposed Liberal minority government besotted by and beholden to the Necromancers of the climate movement and an unapologetically pro-industry (certain parts), stuck in the past provincial government constantly at each others’ throats and unwilling to work together to milk every last iota of rent and profit out of the molecules we are producing suggests that we may never realize our potential because neither side can get out of their own way.
In the meantime, the global economy, led by the US, seems to be trucking along and leaving us behind. A slowdown in growth in China still requires incremental energy. Africa still requires energy. We are too busy navel-gazing to realize what we need to do to realize significant economic growth and our political paralysis isn’t helping. Release the Kraken!
I’m afraid of interest rates, inflation and asset bubbles
Who isn’t right? Interest rates are so high on credit cards… Wait, no. That’s not what I am talking about.
I am afraid that the years of central banks printing money like there is no tomorrow and pouring so much vodka in the punch bowl has given us all alcohol poisoning.
Low interest rates are great when you need to resuscitate an economy. But when you have 7% + GDP growth and record low interest rates, all you are doing is artificially inflating the asset bubble. And with central banks clearly being slow off the mark, is it any wonder that house prices went out of control, risk-analysis went out the window and inflation spiked?
So now rates are finally up. The central banks finally did what they needed to do to slow the economy. But now that the economy has slowed, they need to reduce interest rates. To stimulate the economy. Which of course raises asset values, risking, you guessed it, another bubble.
Why? There is too much cash and liquidity.
Housing and mortgages were unaffordable as interest rates started rising from generational lows. Now rates are falling but housing prices aren’t. People can afford more. So, they will pay more. This doesn’t end well.
Good lord.
I’m afraid of a hard landing and global recession
This is a follow up to the last fear. Rates rise too much or the impact on markets is too severe and suddenly you are in hard landing territory. The goal of any central bank in an inflation fighting cycle is to tap the brakes on the economy by gradually raising rates so the air comes out slowly. But in a highly volatile market like we have right now, the risk of a hard landing is massive. The Fed and the Bank of Canada do not have a lot of room for error and the policy tools are limited.
House prices haven’t come down enough and warning signs are everywhere. Demand feels like it is easing across the board and capital purchases are slowing.
Regardless of who wins the US election, the economic reality is what it is.
There is a fair to slightly higher than fair chance the US avoids a recession. Canada is in one but for official declaration. The rest of the world is highly dependent on the US. China is an overvalued property disaster.
My recession-likelihood indicator gauge is currently running at 66%. This is higher than pretty much any analyst out there, but my spidey-senses are all on super high alert.
Sorry.
I’m afraid we are going to be stuck with Trump into perpetuity
Trying to keep politics out of this, but I can’t help it. I fully believe Donald Trump is a senile, blathering lunatic. How the Republican Party can nominate and support him, in this state, is unfathomable. Is it a necessary cleansing in order to rid itself of the MAGA cult and get back to conservative roots? I don’t know. I do know it’s bad. For the GOP, for conservatives, for the Unted States and for the world.
The Democrats did the right thing and moved on from Joe.
It’s too late for the GOP, we will collectively have to rely on the electorate to do the dirty work now.
But it’s an election that is too close to call. Like many, I am supportive of maybe half of Harris’ agenda and half of the GOP’s. But Trump is the wild card. He is an unpredictable stain who brings behind him a wake filled with a flotsam and jetsam of kooks, racists, grifters, misogynists, Russian apologists and opportunists who have only one thing in mind – themselves.
If he wins, this is who our neighbour is. You know who I’m talking about. The crazy house that you avoid on Halloween. The old man who yells at kids walking on his lawn until one day he isn’t there anymore but the crazier cousins have suddenly moved it.
Trump is old and unwell. Statistically he will die in office if he wins. JD Vance is an evil henchman, but the rot is deep. A landslide victory is the exorcism that is required.
The US can survive 4 years of Harris-Walz, it can’t survive another four years of the Trump Sharknado.
I’m afraid of Putin’s Paranoia
This one is stating the obvious of course, but Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is a threat to the post Cold War way of life and runs a serious risk of escalating into a much broader conflict. While the Ukrainian forces continue to outperform any and all expectations, the reality is that Darth Putin, the Sith Lord of Moscow and his dastardly minions have access to tactical nuclear weapons that I fear they would be tempted to use if the humiliation of their forces continues. And this would drag NATO further into the conflict in ways that could lead to many adverse outcomes with devastating results.
Will it happen? Well certainly not as likely as a recession, but it’s just anther vegetable in the soup pot of doom.
I’m afraid I’ve just torpedoed my reputation as Captain Happy
Yes, lots of doom and gloom here.
Fortunately, I’m not afraid that all of this crap is all going to come to a head at the same time, because that would make me the most paranoid person around. And of course, there are degrees of fear – some of the preceding items are really more of a passing fear as opposed to a paralyzing terror. Trump is actually my biggest real world fear.
Random, crazy fears? I have those too. Consider the following.
I am terrified of wasps.
Not, not that kind. The flying insect ones. Oh, and bees too. You can ask my wife. A bee or wasp flies by and I turn into a frantic, arm-waving lunatic. Which of course just triggers the flying hypodermic needle to come back at me with renewed furour, whereupon I will throw anyone I happen to be with to the proverbial wolves and seek shelter until the offending yellow-jacketed evil swine has moved on. It is often suggested that these fears come from some deep-seated repressed memory, but let me assure you that the memory I have that started this fear is crystal clear. It was a bee. I was a kid. It somehow crawled in my pants overnight. I put said pants on in the morning. The rest is paranoid history.
I have a pathological fear of mustard and mayonnaise.
Yes. It’s true. I sometimes pretend it’s an allergy. It’s not. It’s an embarrassing aversion. And I know it’s weird. Don’t try and convert me. Or hide it. I’ll know. It’s a thing. Sue me.
I am afraid of turbulence
Not flying. Not taking off and landing. Not helicopters. Not planes. Not heights. Just turbulence. The aeronautic equivalent of a bumpy country road. Yup. Turbulence. Speaking of roads, here’s a recent one.
I am afraid for my kids.
This is kind of the generic joe of fears, but really, what kind of a world have we created that our kids will more than likely be the first generation to have a lower quality of life than their parents.
I am afraid that my suddenly energy heavy portfolio won’t perform as expected
This is a perennial fear. From the gas stocks I’ve been sitting on since 2014 to newly selected investments, I am always struck by the energy sectors ability to defy expectations – in either direction. That said, I have it on no less an authority’s say so than Kevin the gas mole that this time is different. So there’s that. Phew right? Misplaced fear!
Bonus extra fears:
I am afraid the Leafs will win a Stanley Cup before my favourite team does….
Who am I kidding? This is absolutely not a fear. Especially since my favourite team every year (aside from Montreal and Calgary) is the team that wins the Stanley Cup and isn’t Toronto. I’m not fussy.
I am afraid that within ten years Murray Edwards will own the balance of the Canadian oilpatch he doesn’t already and we will all be working for him.
Admit it, aren’t we all a little afraid of this?
