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A Pipeline Tragedy

So here’s a thing that has been in the back of my mind since I started my blog. Maybe all of you out in cyber-land can give me some cogent advice and let me know whether it’s a good idea or whether you think I have been spending too much time reading my own press clippings. What I’ve been thinking is that it’s about time for me to branch out into writing in a more formal way.

 

I know, I know. It’s a stretch right? After all, it’s not every day that someone jumps from the world of cranky blogosphere to being able to create a story arcs, characters that elicit sympathy and revulsion, insert hidden meanings and similar nuggets via the written word, but I thought I should give it a shot.

 

Really, what have I got to lose? According to most reports, the energy sector in my home market is an unmitigated dumpster fire, Dave won’t let us branch out into the cannabis financing business and if, perchance, some wealthy producer or editor was to get one of my works mailed to them (hint hint), perhaps I too could move to Los Angeles, Chesapeake Bay, Portland Maine or some bedbug infested loft in New York City and seek my fortune as a humble auteur. Seriously, I could be the next Tom Clancy and may not even know it!

 

So in that vein and forthwith and without further ado, I present to you the plot outline of what is sure to be the first of many genius stories of great importance. I haven’t decided yet whether to make it a novel, a short story or a play (I am leaning to the latter), but I think the general plot works.

 

It is a tale of fate, free will, delusion, political intrigue, shifting allegiances and more than its fair share of violence (gotta keep the boys interested). It is also a bit complex for a first offering and, as always, any resemblance to characters real or fictional (or plots for that matter) is purely intentional. Please enjoy!

 

Justin, Prince of Canada

 

Setting the scene…

 

Young Justin is the Prince of Canada. He is earnest, somewhat foppish and few people take him seriously. His major flaw is an inability to act decisively. He is fond of the theatre and grand gestures. He is well-liked by his people and hopes one day to rule well yet he is presented as the story opens with a series of dilemnas and challenges that will surely result in chaos, destruction of careers and all-around tragedy.

 

It is a dark and stormy night (isn’t it always?) and Notley, a one-time close friend of Justin’s, is walking the halls of parliament when she spies an apparition. Convinced that this apparition is none other than the ghost of Justin’s beloved father she rushes off to tell the young prince, confident that she will win a place at his side with this news.

 

Justin meanwhile is despondent. He has returned from many travels abroad with nothing to show for it except a walk-in closet full of colourful outfits and a seemingly endless supply of novelty socks. To make matters worse, Trump, the recently self-proclaimed Supreme Emperor of the United States, has made repeated threats to take over his kingdom, take all of its natural resources, rename it Trumpnada and cover it in gold leaf.

 

In the meantime, Carr, his trusted energy minister, has crossed over to the dark side and has been convinced to join forces with Kinder, the Pipeline King. Kinder, as we shall discover, is an evil and callow character, determined to pillage and profit from the fossil fuel bounty of the prince’s kingdom and build yet another pipeline to deliver the black sludge of Alberta to the pristine, if somewhat clearcut, city of Vancouver and from thence ship it via leaky tanker to whomever is willing to pay the biggest buck. Failing that, the obvious step is to pour it straight into the ocean – or so it is said. If you wish to picture him, you could say he resembles Snidely Whiplash.

 

But enough of that, back to the story.

 

When Notley finally catches up to Justin, she informs him that she has seen the ghost of Justin’s father, whereupon Justin resolves to see this ghost for himself.

 

Upon meeting the ghost, Justin is informed of the horrible truth – Kinder has indeed fooled and coerced Carr into joining him in pursuit of building that dreaded pipeline to the coast and is, in fact, responsible for poisoning his father’s legacy, turning the people against the prince’s rules, setting them against a carbon tax and pushing back the battle against climate change by centuries. Nothing short of condemning humanity to the eternal hell of an average temperature that is 2 degrees warmer, on average, than it is now.

 

The ghost demands that Justin seek revenge.

 

In order to exact revenge, Justin decides that he must pretend he has gone stark, raving mad and join Kinder and support the building of this pipeline at all costs. Perhaps even offering to pay for it. This will be the only way to get into the inner circle, understand Kinder’s plans and scuttle them once and for all.

 

“This above all: to thine own self be true” Thinks Justin to himself.

 

Once the plan is conceived, he first visits the damsel McKenna who had gladly joined Justin in his quest to virtue-signal and green-wash the kingdom. To make his plan work, he must convince her that building the pipeline is the right thing to do and that he fully supports it. He woos her with the following words:

 

“To build, or not to build: that is the question: 
Whether ’tis nobler for the masses to suffer 
The slings and arrows of expensive gasoline, 
Or to take arms against a sea of bitumen, 
And by opposing end them? To drill: to tax; 
No more; and, by a tax to say we end 
The emissions yet perhaps destroy the foundations 
That our economy is heir to, ’tis a consummation 
Devoutly to be wish’d. To tax, to build; 
To build: perchance to ship: ay, there’s the rub.” 

 

Now fully convinced that she must follow her prince, she gladly throws her principles to the wind and tells whomever will listen that she is now fully supportive of the pipeline even whist deriding climate deniers.

 

Sensing his plan is working, the young prince acts even more unhinged than he has previously and ultimately casts her aside like yesterday’s Shakespeare socks telling her she needs to leave her post and accept a job at an oilsands mining company driving a driverless truck. This establishes his madness and blossoming evilness, which all pipeline supporters harbour.

 

At this point we meet Butts, a courtier and erstwhile advisor to Justin. Sensing that something is awry with his once so spectacularly green master, particularly the casting aside of formerly favoured McKenna and the sudden about-face on pipelines Butts determines he must spy on the young prince and determine what has happened that he has lost his mind and thrown his lot in with the evil Kinder.

 

Just in time to move the plot forward in an even more confusing fashion, a travelling theatre troupe makes its way through the action (don’t they always?) and young Justin, who as we know is quite the thespian, resolves to have them act out a show of his own creation based on the coopting of Carr by the evil Kinder to expose his treachery and exact his sweet, sweet revenge.

 

Justin has the troupe perform its show but since as we all know that Kinder has no conscience, Justin is unable to concretely determine whether Kinder is indeed the evil mastermind the ghost claimed and Carr is seemingly oblivious, so under the spell of ricehs to the treasury is he. Frustrated, Justin accuses Carr of complicity with the enemy, to which he is informed that the enemy is in fact within.

 

Meanwhile, Butts, who was for some reason not invited to the show had belatedly decided to hide behind a curtain.

 

Unfortunately, just as Justin is accusing Carr of betrayal, Butts inadvertently drops some Bombardier share certificates he has for some odd reason been carrying with him and Justin, fearing a Kinder spy, stabs him through the curtain, only realizing too late that it was his most loyal confidant from his team.

 

Realizing at Justin’s grief that the “madness” was all an act, Kinder realizes he must be rid of the pesky prince and tells Justin that he must travel to Houston (no Justin, no cowboy hats) to regain his wits and avoid the spotlight as the demise of Butts works its way through the news cycle.

 

Ever the plotter, Kinder decides that he must exploit the deceiving ways of Justin and pretend that he will cancel the pipeline project and take his evil plans elsewhere. All the while the real goal is to fool everyone, remove all obstacles to his plan and line his pockets. To accomplish this, Kinder sends Carr to speak to Suzuki to speak to Horgan and Weaver, explaining his conversion and that he has decided to abandon the pipeline, but Justin won’t let him and wants to buy it. They are ordered to deliver a message to Morgan of Houston saying that Justin is mad and must be “dealt with” or the pipeline will go forward.

 

Horgan and Weaver were one-time West Coast allies and snowboarding students of Justin’s but have now become decided enemies and anti-fossil fuel activists. Horrified by his abandoning of their favourite cause and desperate for power, they accept the assignment thinking that once they are rid of young Justin they will return to Canada, dispose of Kinder and his pipeline ideas once and for all, partner with Suzuki and assume their rightful place in control of the entire country.

 

As these events unfold, broken by the end of her carbon tax and the humiliation of having to issue statements of support for a pipeline in which she doesn’t believe McKenna loses her sanity as well. Distraught, she casts herself into an underground carbon capture and storage facility and is never seen again.

 

Meanwhile, sensing that his companions are perhaps not looking out for his own best interests and are conniving weasels, Justin fully exposes Horgan and Weaver’s anti-pipeline bias to Morgan of Houston and in a twist of fate, saves his own skin by speaking eloquently about the need for underground steel tubes while letting the two turncoats suffer whatever fate Morgan has in mind for them.

 

Horgan and Weaver soon find themselves forced to work as labourers in a pipeline spread and are soon conveniently buried in a trench. Horgan and Weaver are dead. Justin, anxious to get away from Morgan of Houston lest his treachery also be discovered and sensing time is short to avenge his father’s legacy makes a hasty return to Canada, determined to end this once farce and for all.

 

(Body Break! Let’s see, that’s four people and one legacy killed so far, it’s going well.)

 

Upon his return to Canada, Justin meets Notley at an oilsands mining site. What follows is a bit odd, but somehow Justin finds a skull and while chatting with Notley and a grizzled old miner holds the skull aloft and exclaims:

 

“Alas, poor Leach! I knew him, Notley, a fellow of infinite energy, of most excellent words.”

 

At this time, Notley feels compelled to inform Justin of McKenna’s disappearance and likely demise. Saddened by the news on McKenna and determined to bring things to a conclusion, Justin determines to face Kinder once and for all and races off.

 

“Something is rotten in the state of Canada” says the oilsands miner to Notley

 

While this was all transpiring, Kenney, arch enemy of Horgan, Weaver, McKenna and Butts has managed to somehow join Kinder’s inner circle and fancies himself somewhat of an advisor.

 

Of course, we all know how this is going to unfold. It is obvious that Kenney has been seduced by the filthy lucre of the oil trade and his lust for power and desire to overthrow first Notley and then Justin blinds him to the pure evil of his new master. Realizing that Justin will soon betray his pipeline dreams, Kinder compels Kenney to challenge the young prince to a duel. Rather than accept a battle with swords or a game of highway chicken using two matching blue Dodge Rams, the prince suggests a boxing match. The game as they say, is afoot!

 

Determine to win at any cost, Kinder has one last sinister card to play.

 

Unbeknownst to any party except for Kenney and Kinder, Kenney’s boxing gloves have been treated with carbon poison and the same poison has been put in the water bottle that Justin will keep in his corner of the ring. Death should be swift and unmerciful.

 

Against the backdrop of a sudden and unexpected invasion of Canada by Trump and his forces, the boxing match unfolds. Justin, confident in his abilities, spars against an eager and newly slimmed down Kenney. As the rounds pass and the two trade epic (and occasionally low) blows, the poison comes off Kenney’s glove onto Justin yet, in the typical intermingling that happens in a boxing match, some gets on Kenney as well. Realizing too late what has happened, Kenney confronts Justin and tells him that the gig is up, that they are both poisoned and they will both be dead in less than 3 minutes. Suddenly at a loss for words, the young prince looks around and sees the once faithful and now hopelessly compromised Carr taking a big drink out of his water bottle. Unless he acts, all is lost. The environment, the carbon tax, the international accolades – all of it.

 

In a moment of clarity (meh, probably the fever of carbon poisoning), Justin finally sees the light of his father’s legacy and decides that he must do all he can to stop the pipeline. Rushing across the ring, he gathers one of the ever-resent swords that seem to lie around stories like this and stabs the triumphant Kinder, who is too busy celebrating his victory to notice the approaching prince. Justin, in his last thoughts, is finally at peace that he has managed to stave off environmental degradation, save the Spirit Bear and save Vancouver for coal exports for all eternity.

 

With that, they are all gone. Except Notley. The one time ally of Justin. And secret supporter of the pipeline (shh – don’t tell anyone).

 

Surveying the carnage, Notley leans against the ropes of the boxing ring and thinks to herself, “Well, now what?”

 

At that very moment, the Canada conquering Emperor Trump of the United States arrives and casts an appraising eye over the mayhem.

 

“What has happened here Notley? You have a bigly problem. Where’s my pipeline guy? What happened to Justin? Everyone’s gone? What? You have oil, lots of oil. Some of the most beautiful oil there is. I know. I know how to buy oil. I am the best buyer of oil there is. But I need someone to buy it from. We are energy dominant, but we need some of that heavy oil stuff to make America great again. I may tax it, you know, but we need it. Although my people, and I have the best people, my people say maybe we buy too much oil from Canada. But I’ll let you keep selling it to me because we’re great friends. All you need to do is get it to me.”

 

“Well Mr. Trump,” says Notley, “let me tell you about this pipeline project we are trying to get built…”

 

“You can have your pipeline, don’t you worry Notley. We may even build it. We build the best pipelines. Maybe you can even have two, or three. Especially with all these bozos out of the way. Yes, three it is. Three big, beautiful pipelines. All made with Russian, I mean American, steel. But you’ll have to pay for it… Yes Notley, I think this is going to work out just fine. This could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship”

 

The end…

 

Prices as at April 20, 2018 (April 13, 2018)

  • The price of oil rose sharply during the week on Mideast tensions and OPEC restraint before losing ground at the end of the week
    • Storage posted a sharp decrease
    • Production was up marginally
    • The rig count in the US was mixed
  • After a small yet larger than expected withdrawal, natural gas recovered modestly…

 

  • WTI Crude: $68.38 ($67.27)
  • Nymex Gas: $2.739 ($2.735)
  • US/Canadian Dollar: $0.7850 ($ 0.7939)

Highlights

  • As at April 13, 2018, US crude oil supplies were at 427.5 million barrels, a decrease of 1.1 million barrels from the previous week and 104.8 million barrels below last year.
    • The number of days oil supply in storage was 25.3 behind last year’s 32.1.
    • Production was up for the week by 15,000 barrels a day at 10.540 million barrels per day. Production last year at the same time was 9.252 million barrels per day. The change in production this week came from a decrease in Alaska deliveries and a increase in Lower 48 production.
    • Imports fell from 8.650 million barrels a day to 7.930 compared to 7.810 million barrels per day last year.
    • Exports from the US rose to 1.749 million barrels a day from 1.205 last week and 0.565 a year ago
    • Canadian exports to the US were 3.542 million barrels a day, down from 3.401
    • Refinery inputs were down during the week at 16.949 million barrels a day
  • As at April 13, 2018, US natural gas in storage was 1.299 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 26% lower than the 5-year average and about 38% less than last year’s level, following an implied net withdrawal of 36 Bcf during the report week
    • Overall U.S. natural gas consumption was down 9% during the report week
    • Production for the week was down marginally. Imports from Canada were down 9% compared to the week before. Exports to Mexico were down 1% as pipeline maintenance concluded.
    • LNG exports totalled 21.6 Bcf.
  • Can you say “Break-up”? As of April 10 the Canadian rig count was 93 – 85 Alberta, 2 BC, 5 Saskatchewan, 0 Manitoba and 1 elsewhere. Rig count for the same period last year was actually higher.
  • US Onshore Oil rig count at April 13, 2018 was at 820, up 5 from the week prior.
    • Peak rig count was October 10, 2014 at 1,609
  • Natural gas rigs drilling in the United States was down 2 at 192.
    • Peak rig count before the downturn was November 11, 2014 at 356 (note the actual peak gas rig count was 1,606 on August 29, 2008)
  • Offshore rig count was up 2 at 18
    • Offshore rig count at January 1, 2015 was 55
  • US split of Oil vs Gas rigs is 80%/20%, in Canada the split is 70%/30%

 

Drillbits

  • The Sunday meeting happened between Horgan, Notley and Trudeau. Nothing was resolved. Trudeau left for France and England to solve the “straw” problem.
  • Alberta introduced Bill 12, legislation designed to allow it to restrict shipments of fossil fuels to other jurisdictions – like BC. Nothing like throwing the constitution out with the bath water to defend your commercial rights under the, umm, constitution.
  • Trump Watch: Comey. OPEC tweet. Otherwise quiet. Maybe too quiet.
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